Japan’s refusal to accept that the islands are disputed rules out negotiations leaving China little option.
Dr. Jenny Clegg is senior lecturer in Asia Pacific Studies at the University of Central Lancashire. She is also the author of ‘China’s Global Strategy: toward a multipolar world‘
No sooner had China declared an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea area on November 23 than the airspace became filled with military aircraft – Japanese, South Korean, American B-52s, then Chinese.
With such heightened tensions, the fear is that a minor incident could spark a larger crisis bringing not only China and Japan but also China and the US, two nuclear-armed superpowers, into collision.
From reading the Western media, anyone would have thought that the next world war was about to break out, with China the instigator.
Yet China is doing nothing unusual let alone illegal: the US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam have all had ADIZs in operation in the region for many years.
Some background is necessary. The area in question includes a number of uninhabited islands – known as the Diaoyu to the Chinese and the Senkaku to the Japanese – which are located 140km from Taiwan, 330km from China and 440 km West of Okinawa. They are under Japanese administration but are also claimed by China and Taiwan, who regard the current arrangements as a legacy of Japanese imperial rule.
The islands were ceded to Japan in 1895 following China’s defeat in the first Sino-Japanese War. At the end of World War 2, the US took over their control until 1972 when they were returned to Japan, at which point the Chinese asserted their claim.
Oil reserves were discovered in 1968 but the situation is not so much a ‘scramble over resources’ as, for China, a matter of equal treatment: the 1945 Potsdam Declaration stipulated that the ownership of minor islands claimed by Japan was to be defined by the wartime allies, of course including the Republic of China at that time.
In denial over its past war crimes, Japan has resolutely refused to recognise that the islands are disputed. Last year, it swapped some of them at will from private to government hands amidst a clamour of right-wing nationalist fervour.
This provocation to China received not a word of reprimand from the West.
Indeed, when in 2010 Japan unilaterally doubled the size of its own ADIZ to within 130 km of China’s coast, this was in effect endorsed just a few months later by Hillary Clinton, then US Secretary of State, who declared the islands to be covered by the US-Japan security pact and confirmed US commitment to opposing any unilateral action that would undermine their administration by Japan.
Rather than being driven forward by an expansionist nationalism, China’s latest move may well be a calculated test of US intentions in the region. The recent easing of tensions in the Middle East has left the US free to concentrate on its ‘Asia pivot’ whilst at the same time the US retreat from military intervention in Syria followed by Obama’s the cancellation of his visit to the Asia Pacific during the US government shutdown has raised questions about US commitment in the latter region.
Despite dispatching the two B-52 bombers, the US stopped short of calling for China’s ADIZ to be scrapped, much to the chagrin of the Japanese government. Has China succeeded in dividing the US and Japan? Or is it rather that the US seeks the role of ‘honest broker’ here between an increasingly assertive China and Japan’s unapologetic hawks.
In this way Obama might reclaim US authority as world leader, a role it has just been denied in the Middle East by Russian diplomacy.
With control over the key regional shipping lanes in its hands, the US has the power to cut off world trade with China. If China seeks to change this status quo, it does not mean that its aim is to replace American with Chinese hegemony.
Xi Jinping has repeatedly stated that the Pacific Ocean has enough space for two large countries. China’s serious commitment to power-sharing in North East Asia is clearly indicated by its dogged efforts to get the six party talks on Korean denuclearisation going again.
The failure of the US to take the opportunity this year, the 60th anniversary of the Korean war armistice, to open the way to a peace treaty equally suggests that the US is not ready to make way for a multipolar determination of East Asian security.
The mixed signals from the US could lead to an even more dangerous confusion within the region.
There is still, however, a way back from conflict if the China-India border defence cooperation agreement, signed in October, were to be taken as a model. Both sides here seek to avert an escalation of tensions by committing to avoid the use of force or threat of force, to refrain from provocative actions and not to tail each others patrols.
Japan’s refusal to accept that the islands are disputed rules out negotiations leaving China little option. What would be the reaction if China declares further ADIZ’s over the seas that bear its name? For the region to descend into a downward spiral of conflict would be a disaster for the world economy.
25 Responses to “Crisis in the skies: China, Japan, the US and the East China Sea dispute”
Hein.Q
That’s good. I said “Taiwan area” not “Taiwan”. Actually, when you asked the question about province, I know exactly what you want to say next and how you trap. And I said, it belongs to China, not only PRC, it’s China. The issue between the mainland and Taiwan area is our internal affairs. Dare any country of the G20 recognise Taiwan’s independence or the legality of ROC, especially British government? Even the leader of Taiwan area Ma Ying-Jeou said, the relationship between mainland and Taiwan area is not the relationship between nations, it’s special. And he said, we are not two Chinas. So on the issue of Fishing Island, we both represent for China not just PRC or ROC.
If you want to ask as long as Fishing Island should be governed by Taiwan area, how the mainland claims the sovereignty. I’d say,Taiwan is still an integral part of China, not to mention Fishing Islands.
所以，不要在台湾地区这里做文章了，没有意义, 而且我认为这才是真的silly。如果你关注马英九目前正在推行的法案就会明白，台湾地区正在缓慢但是坚定地向着统一前进。
不过我还是觉得有西方人学中文还是很神奇的。
Hein.Q
If you check all my replies you will find that when mention to “Taiwan”, I always use “Taiwan Islands” or “Taiwan area” but not “Taiwan” alone in case of someone attacking me on this point. And don’t think Taiwan area is weak then someone can bully him. We are his big brother.
Moodoo
Taiwan is the Republic of China, the Republic China is Taiwan and it is a soveriegn nation. The guomindang are finished there and the pro independence DPP likely to win the election. Just as Britain gives the decision to the Scottish people tlthen China should have no problem withpeople exercising the right to self-determination as mentioned in the st united nations resolution that you’re quoting at me earlier. Qing invaded and conquered Taiwan 300 yeara ago. a bank holiday this by sending han chinese to live there but you have no issue with this. It has been separate from China for 100 years and most people there now do not even identify as Chinese only the threat of war has halted the independence movement. Thankfully thw Taiwan Relations Act will protect this gem of democracy in Asia from the barbaric beast next door.
Hein.Q
Your government has not recognized the sovereignty of Taiwan area. If your government believes Taiwan is an independent state but dare not admit it, your government is hypocritical. As long as your democracy decides that these government officials are on behalf of your thoughts, that is to say the British are hypocritical. If not, save your words. Let your government recognize the independence of Taiwan area please, USE YOUR DEMOCRACY please! I can’t wait!
And stop showing me your shallow knowledge in Chinese history. If Qing invaded and conquered in Taiwan, Qing invaded and conquered the whole mainland. They took it from Ming Zheng which you won’t understand.
Why did the British use violence to stop North Ireland being independent? Because Britain is hypocritical. They are happy to see others seperated but not themselves. Scotsman did do vote, but unless your government allow them to withdraw from UK, then you can say Britain gives the decision. What I can see is that Britain is preparing for another war like what they did to IRA.
Have a look at what your ancestors did to African and Indians, the massacre and the invasion of Asia. Now you want to say human rights, too late. Take off the mask and go back on history Britain is the REAL barbaric beast. Not just in history but also now, look at what British did to Iraq. So just wipe that hypocrisy off the face.
Your country is part of the largest network control of the world PRISM.
Your country did the worst genocide of the world.
Your country is the only country which is still trying to keep their impact in colonies in modern civilization society.
etc.
If I were you, I would stop and evaluate myself but not blame others. The one who accuse others are barbarous chooses to ingore his country waging wars all along.
Luong the Viet
We Viets totally support our Japanese brothers and sisters in the upcoming war against these greedy dirty chinese. Please continue to supply Vietnam with Japan’s best and most advanced weapons so we can kill and defeat them. After china is defeated, we must break up china into 1,000 smaller countries. All of southern china, including Hainan Island, will be taken over by Vietnam. Amen.