Polls cast pall over Cameron and Osborne as Tory conference begins

As the Conservative Party Conference begins in Birmingham today, the latest polls provide the grimmest of backdrops for David Cameron and George Osborne.

 

As the Conservative Party Conference begins in Birmingham today, the latest polls provide the grimmest of backdrops for David Cameron and George Osborne.

An Opinium poll for today’s Observer shows the prime minister and chancellor trailing Boris Johnson in their personal ratings:

51% of voters have a favourable impression of the London Mayor, compared to 29% for Cameron and only 11% for Osborne;

53% have an unfavourable impression of Osborne and 50% of Cameron, against 21% for Johnson;

• If Cameron remains leader in 2015, 29% are likely to vote Tory (v 56% unlikely), with 32% likely to vote Tory (v 48% unlikely);

Just 3% would prefer Osborne to replace Cameron as party leader – 35% choose Johnson, 20% William Hague, 5% Theresa May and 4% Michael Gove.

To add to Cameron and Osborne’s woes, a Populus poll of Tory MPs for Edelman, also out today, shows zero per cent of those surveyed identify the chancellor as the most trusted member of the Cabinet, with the prime minister on only six per cent – the same as Chris Grayling and below Hague (11%), Owen Paterson (13%), Iain Duncan Smith (13%) and Gove (17%).

See Table 1:

Edelman-Populus-poll-of-Tory-MPs
Meanwhile, Ed Miliband received a boost following his widely-praised “One Nation” speech in Manchester last week, as The Observer’s Daniel Boffey reports:

Ed Miliband enjoyed a personal mini-bounce following his successful speech at Labour conference, his party stretched its lead to 11 points over the Conservatives.

The opposition leader’s approval rating shot from 23% of likely voters before the speech to 28%, according to the latest Observer/Opinium poll. David Cameron’s approval rating is slightly higher at 30%, but the narrowing in this key area for the Tory party will be a major worry.

Overall, [as Graph 1 shows], Labour stretched its poll lead, with 41% signalling an intention to vote for them compared with 30% for the Conservatives and 9% for the Liberal Democrats.

Graph 1:

Observer-Opinium-state-of-the-parties-poll
With Miliband flying high, it is now Cameron under pressure, from his own side and elsewhere; a week is indeed a long time…

One Response to “Polls cast pall over Cameron and Osborne as Tory conference begins”

  1. uglyfatbloke

    Meanwhile ICM has the lib-dems only 2 points behind the SNP…looks like a Liberal breakthrough until you realise that they are ‘only’ 2 points behind in Northern England. By anybody’s standards that has got to be funny.

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