OBR get growth projection wrong (again)

The OBR has got its growth projection wrong again. Last month they predicted growth this quarter of 0.3 per cent. Today's figures show they are out by 0.5 percentage points.

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Today’s terrible growth figures further undermine the predicting powers of the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Just a month ago, the OBR published their latest Economic and fiscal outlook which predicted growth in Q1 of 2012 of 0.3 per cent. Today’s figures of -0.2 per cent mean that they were out by 0.5 percentage points.

Table 3.3 below (p.50, pdf) shows their prediction:

Table-3-point-3-OBR-March-2012-Outlook
The OBR was forced to revise down its figures for 2011 on five occasions. They initially predicted 2.6 per cent before the Emergency Budget in June 2010 but this was downgraded to 2.3 per cent after that Budget, 2.1 per cent in November 2010, 1.7 per cent in March 2011, 0.9 per cent in November 2011, and finally 0.8 per cent in March 2012.

 


See also:

Osborne’s expansionary fiscal contraction has failed 24 Apr 2012


 

The OBR’s latest growth prediction for 2012 is 0.8 per cent but that was predicated on positive growth this quarter. Unless economic output picks up in the remainder of the year, it looks like they’ll have to revise their forecast yet again.

 


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26 Responses to “OBR get growth projection wrong (again)”

  1. William Bain

    OBR get growth projection wrong (again) http://t.co/OgWgysn2 reports @wdjstraw

  2. Martin Russo

    OBR get growth projection wrong (again) http://t.co/OgWgysn2 reports @wdjstraw

  3. Bob Ellard

    OBR get growth projection wrong (again) http://t.co/OgWgysn2 reports @wdjstraw

  4. Toby Perkins

    Succinct but accurate reminder of performance of OBR predictions. http://t.co/4i7AkL7c

  5. Brian Moylan

    RT @leftfootfwd: OBR get growth projection wrong (again) http://t.co/DG8hEwva reports @wdjstraw < anybody would think it a Tory invention…

  6. BevR

    OBR get growth projection wrong (again) http://t.co/OgWgysn2 reports @wdjstraw

  7. Pulp Ark

    OBR get growth projection wrong (again) http://t.co/MF48btaJ #SustainableEconomy #muslim #tcot #sioa

  8. AlmosJustice

    You might well ask: Does anybody running our economy know what they're doing? OBR get growth projection wrong (again) http://t.co/z0Yyg7SD

  9. leftlinks

    Left Foot Forward – OBR get growth projection wrong (again) http://t.co/rKlWoEdm

  10. Emanuel Stoakes

    On the poor GDP figures, read how the OBR got their growth projection wrong (again): http://t.co/OgWgysn2 by @wdjstraw

  11. Shamik Das

    On the poor GDP figures, read how the OBR got their growth projection wrong (again): http://t.co/OgWgysn2 by @wdjstraw

  12. Steven Boxall

    Is the OBR fit for purpose? 5 revisions each one down RT @leftfootfwd: 'OBR get growth projection wrong (again)' http://t.co/rWWGYi8K

  13. BevR

    On the poor GDP figures, read how the OBR got their growth projection wrong (again): http://t.co/OgWgysn2 by @wdjstraw

  14. Rutland&MeltonLabour

    On the poor GDP figures, read how the OBR got their growth projection wrong (again): http://t.co/OgWgysn2 by @wdjstraw

  15. BevR

    OBR get growth projection wrong (again) http://t.co/OgWgysn2 reports @wdjstraw

  16. Stephen

    If you have a predictive model.. and it doesn’t forecast the future correctly then you have to eventually change your model.

    It is clear that the OBR economic model has in-built factors relating public spending to growth (multipliers) that are just flat wrong.

    The presumption of these model factors is highly ideological and political and they have empirically failed.

    I think the idea that the OBR is an objective independent body is increasingly daft – it has a political economic model that many people flatly reject.

  17. David Forman

    On the poor GDP figures, read how the OBR got their growth projection wrong (again): http://t.co/OgWgysn2 by @wdjstraw

  18. David Forman

    OBR get growth projection wrong (again) http://t.co/OgWgysn2 reports @wdjstraw

  19. Mark Howard

    RT @leftfootfwd: OBR get growth projection wrong (again) http://t.co/UmAyG4mg

  20. Pucci D

    On the poor GDP figures, read how the OBR got their growth projection wrong (again): http://t.co/OgWgysn2 by @wdjstraw

  21. Andrew Lewin

    Huge admiration for Robert Chote, but serious questions have to be asked about the accuracy of OBR forecasts > http://t.co/2PSM5NoQ

  22. BenM_Kent

    Spot on.

  23. Andy Birss

    OBR model is rubbish http://t.co/Ymh73h7n What is the point of the OBR if it always wrong? May as well throw darts at a board!

  24. Anonymous

    The Office of Budgetary Fiddling.

    Been saying it for a long time.

  25. Shifting Grounds

    What is the point of the OBR? http://t.co/cxueDZ5R @wdjstraw

  26. Cameron’s downgrading of environment policy bodes ill for the future | Left Foot Forward

    […] we now know, Britain is back in recession but the combined effect of anaemic growth over the last 18 months means the economy is […]

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