In his Autumn statement, George Osborne confirmed that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) now projects that the government will borrow more than Alistair Darling was projected to at the time of the last election.
This puts the OBR in line with those independent forecasters collated by HM Treasury this month:
The raw figures are here:
| 10/11 | 11/12 | 12/13 | 13/14 | 14/15 | |
| Current Independent Projected (Collated by HM Treasury) | 129 | 117 | 98 | 81 | |
| 2010 OBR projection of Osborne Plan | 149 | 116 | 89 | 60 | 37 |
| 2010 OBR projection of Darling Plan | 155 | 127 | 106 | 85 | 71 |
| 2011 OBR projection of Osborne Plan | 127 | 120 | 100 | 79 |
In fairness to the Chancellor, he claims that if the Darling plan had been implemented, given low growth, the public sector would have borrowed around £100 billion over the course of the parliament than the Coalition is due to.
However, the argument between the frontbenches is about how much the additional Osborne cutting strangled growth. Whoever is right, we now know this: The government is due to borrow at levels it once said were irresponsible and a sure route to disaster.
See also:
• Whatever Osborne’s growth forecasts today, the reality is probably worse – Daniel Elton, November 29th 2011
• Inflation report is bad news for Osborne’s targets – Tony Dolphin, October 18th 2011
• Cameron’s “failed experiment” leads to yet another economic downgrade – Alex Hern, October 17th 2011
• OECD prediction rocks Osborne’s deficit reduction hopes – Ben Fox, September 9th 2011
• Britain is bottom of the G7′s growth table – Will Straw, August 4th 2011
19 Responses to “OBR confirm Osborne will borrow more than the Darling projection”
Charles
The Darling plan was based on predictions for growth that were at least as optimistic as those Osborne used. This is glorious hindsight on behalf of Labour. Borrowing would be even higher now if Darling was still chancellor.
Colne Valley Labour
OBR confirm Osborne will borrow more than the Darling projection: http://t.co/vg7epG4P : writes @danielelton #as11
Michael
OBR confirm Osborne will borrow more than the Darling projection I Left Foot Forward – http://t.co/3CLrYVc4
Oxford Kevin
Darling totally underestimated the effects of his stimulus package during his last year as chancellor, the deficit was much less than projected (Darling and Treasury really underestimated the benefits of the stimulus package). And of course as the Tories unwound the stimulus package fast the projection and the actual deficit diverged in completely the opposite direction where we have had much higher deficits than projected because the stimulus was unwound. A Beautiful example of Keynsian economics at play, demonstrated by the introduction of the stimulus and the winding of it back. In a slump and low interest rates can’t get you out then government stimulus works.
As to the impact of the eurozone, that really hasn’t impacted us yet, it will do and soon. So far we’ve been a drag on eurozone economies as the eurozone has grown more than us.
http://ablog.typepad.com/keytrendsinglobalisation/2011/10/uk_worse_than_eurozone.html
If you can’t see the pictures in the above here they are:
http://ablog.typepad.com/.a/6a00e554717cc98833014e8bfc5cf4970d-pi
http://ablog.typepad.com/.a/6a00e554717cc98833015435dbeeb8970c-pi
Jamie
OBR confirm Osborne will borrow more than the Darling projection http://t.co/l4Oj0ykK