The government and the unions are scrapping over public opinion, and so it seems worth looking at the short-term and long-term trends on polling on the issues.
Today begins what has been variously compared to the ill-fated general strike of 1926, and a long hot ‘summer of hate’. The government and the unions are scrapping over public opinion, and so it seems worth looking at the short-term and long-term trends on polling on industrial relations.
On the short-term trends, UK Polling Report has done an excellent round-up, but the condensed version is that on most of the issues, the public are fairly evenly split.
On the question of whether the public pensions are too generous (38 per cent), about right (25 per cent) or too mean (11 per cent), the pro-pension reform side has a lead of +2, while on the question of whether to support the changes at all, the pro-reform side has a deficit of -5 (YouGov, 18 June).
In this polling, unlike election polling, leads of single figures may not mean much as this is not heading for a ‘snapshot moment’ when the battle for public opinion will be won or lost.
For the following polling questions, a + rating indicates a lead for the pro-reform/anti-union side, and a – rating indicates a lead for the anti-reform/pro-union side (check polling data for exact wording):
• Should the retirement age be raised in the public sector from 60 to 66?: +8 (ICM 19 June);
• Strikes are a legitimate way for unions to protest against the general direction of government policy: -27 (Populus 19 June);
• The Government should legislate so that strikes are not allowed in certain public services: +15 (Populus 19 June);
• Strike action is a sign of how little power the unions have in Britain today: -23 (Populus 19 June) (indicates that a plurality do think unions are weak);
• Are public sector workers right to go on strike to protect their pensions?: -12 (ComRes 19 June);
• Do public sector workers have a legitimate reason to go on strike over their pension plans?: -14 (ComRes 27 June);
• The public sector is too large and should be cut back?: +12 (ComRes 19 June);
• Public sector workers are facing an unfair decline in living standards due to the cuts -5 (ComRes 19 June);
• Are the public sector workers right to go on strike: 0 (Ipsos-Mori 19 June)
What is clear as you go through the various data tables is that a lot of the answers depend on the polling – the public have sympathy with public sector workers, but less sympathy, if not animosity, towards striking.
What is certainly true is that there is not a groundswell of anti-union public opinion that we saw in the late 70s/early 80s. Ipsos-Mori trend data shows that a large majority of people do not think that trade uniosn are too powerful:
Two notes of caution are needed when predicting what will happen as the dispute unfolds. Any long-running political dispute from a war down to an office feud, rarely ends up being about what it started off as.
The Miners’ strike of 1984-5, for example, may have started off as a dispute about the rate of downsizing of the industry – something that had been going on fairly continuously since 1945 – but ended up being about whether coalmining should largely exist at all as an industry or, arguably, the UK’s entire economic settlement. By the end of this dispute, we may well be arguing over something other than public sector pensions, if we are not already.
Also, while game theorists say that antagonists should avoid situations which can lead to a zero-sum game – if one party wins, the other must lose – this could end up being a minus-sum game – both sides lose.
The government may get their way, discredit the union movement, and pave the way for a raft of anti-union legislation. But all that can be acheived while simultaneously earning a reputation for bullying teachers and the public servants the population relies on. Even if the government ‘wins’ it may well ‘lose’ – and badly.
To reach hundreds of thousands of new readers and to make the biggest impact we can in the next general election, we need to grow our donor base substantially.
That's why in 2024, we are seeking to generate 150 additional regular donors to support Left Foot Forward's work.
We still need another 124 people to donate to hit the target. You can help. Donate today.
14 Responses to “The coalition and the unions: the state of play on day one”
Leon Wolfson
Ed? We’re already *critically* short of chemistry, physics, math and engineering teachers and short of biology and modern language ones at secondary level. That’s why there are training bursaries in those subjects.
However, the stats I’ve seen say that they’re still not getting enough people in those subjects. The Government’s response has to been to say that they’re reviewing the future of bursaries and to remove golden hello’s.
(And teacher training places overall are being cut!)
They’re also favouring on-the-job training over university-based courses, ignoring the fact that most of the people in the subjects they need most tend towards the university-based courses, and those courses are mostly considered excellent.
It’s happening at BOTH secondary and university level. (Primary teaching is a very different speciality, and doesn’t need the same kind of academic support…it looks to be fine)
After seeing two industries I’ve worked in melt away to Canada, and doing the research into this…I’m quite sure I’m right.
Look Left – Up to 10 million face starvation in Horn of Africa | Left Foot Forward
[…] public attitudes to the strikes, and the ‘political game’ being played out, Daniel Elton […]
Doug
Leon, if you’re not originally from these islands, fine. If you are, it’s MATHS!
Rant over, now the debate. ‘Ed’s talking balls’ is an apt name. You clearly know nothing about teaching and what the job involves – it’s extremely stressful and getting worse by the day with all the attacks teaching and the education system is under. Secondly, you seem to be peddling a variation of the pathetic ‘I haven’t got it, so why should they’ whine. These pensions have been fought for for decades by trade unions and most public sector pensions are nowhere near the golden nest eggs portrayed by the government and its pliant media parrots. Even the Hutton Report’s own figures proves they’re not ‘unaffordable’.
The whole issue is about the cuts and how to make most of us pay for the economic crimes of others. Public sector staff are also facing redundancies, changing working practices and services reductions. The pensions issue needs to be seen in thsi overall context.
It’s amazing how the government is suddenly concerned about the pensions of private sector workers. What’s it going to do – top them up with the money they steal from us? Hah, bloody hah.
This race to the bottom attitude about pensions does no-one any good, except of course rich businessmen and politicians, whose sunset years will be very comfortable indeed.
Priti Patel’s attacks on trade unions are all about ideology | Left Foot Forward
[…] The coalition and the unions: the state of play on day one – Daniel Elton, June 30th 2011 Share | Permalink | Leave a comment Comments > […]