Good Tory results give Cameron a 2015 headache

What the 2011 Local election results show is that Cameron will not be able to erode the Labour lead by 'calling voters home' - Ed Miliband's lead may be small but hard to shift

The Westminster conventional wisdom – that Ed Miliband’s Labour Party is not doing well enough – appears to be based on two contradictory notions. The first is that Labour needs to build a larger opinion poll lead than its current typical 4-5 per cent,  as it will gradually erode before the next election. The other is that the Tory vote is holding up – as evidenced by last week’s election results. But if, in effect, the Tories have not lost any votes to Labour, it’s hard to see what erosion can take place.

Both opinion polling and the local election results provisionally point to the same picture: Labour has picked up votes from the Liberal Democrats, but not from the Conservatives. So, for example, from the findings of the latest Ipsos-Mori monthly poll, we find that almost 20 per cent of Liberal Democrat voters have gone over to Labour, only 3 per cent of Conservatives have. In fact, 5 per cent of Lib Dem voters have gone over to the Tories.

 

 

This would seem to be borne out by the 2011 local election results, which showed large gains for Labour by historical standards, the Liberal Democrats being decimated. Meanwhile, the Conservative actually added councillors – which you would expect if some Labour-aligned voters who backed the Liberal Democrats at the 2010 general election have ‘come home’, allowing the Lib Dem vote to fall below their Conservative challengers.

So if Cameron is to claw back those four to five points, it’s not going to come from Labour – who are either voters that stood with the party through the nadir of 2010, or are former Lib Dem voters, presumably unhappy with the decision of Nick Clegg to go into the coalition.

How the votes churned will only be fully understood after weeks of analysis. However, the prime minister’s best bet appears to be for the Lib Dem image to shift left, so his junior coalition partner can bring back some of those former voters, and may even leave their right flank vulnerable to the Tories. But that seems impossible under the leadership of the current deputy prime minister. Which suggests a very odd scenario:

It’s in David Cameron’s best interest that the Liberal Democrats dump Nick Clegg before the next election.

28 Responses to “Good Tory results give Cameron a 2015 headache”

  1. Anon E Mouse

    This article should be used as an illustration of all that is wrong with Labour activism.

    1. Despite the unpopular cuts more individual voters voted Tory than Labour.
    2. Labour has 25% of it’s MP’s from Scotland – which it just comprehensively lost.
    3. Labour couldn’t even secure a majority of seats in Wales where again the Tory vote went up.
    4. Ed Miliband is the least popular of the three party leader leaders and Labour is financially bust.
    5. Labour have a dire poll rating – Blair was 21% ahead without the cuts at this point.
    6. In four years the economy will have turned round. The banks will be sold and tax cuts will buy the voters.
    7. Middle England will never vote Labour under Miliband – look at the electoral map in the South East.
    8. The forthcoming boundary changes will primarily hit the Labour strongholds.
    9. Labour has lost over 5 million voters since 1997 and had it’s worst election results last year since 1931.

    Oppositions do not win elections – governments lose them and the history shows since 1923, that no opposition without a 10-14% lead has a chance. The only reason Labour made large gains (but not 1200 gains as predicted) was because the Tories thrashed them previously – they were starting from a low base. In any event the Tories increased their share of the vote and gained 4 councils – unbelievable. Also you have not noted the councils here that were drawn by straw – all went to Labour but don’t count.

    The fact is until Labour start to be positive and realise WHY they lost the election last year and stop these stupid articles they are doomed to opposition. I remember people on this very fine blog actually arguing that the UK should vote for Gordon Brown – it’s madness.

    Labour’s current standing has never been worse (in respect of Scotland primarily) and until the contributors here realise that these articles are a MAJOR part of the problem. The Lib Dem’s are not the problem for Labour – with only 57 seats at the last election they never were.

    if there was an election tomorrow morning the Tories would win and Labour would go bust – no one would bankroll them.

    If Labour activists continue with this type of delusional spin and lies it will only benefit the government and doom the party to opposition. Does no one here want the re-election of a Labour government?

  2. Ed's Talking Balls

    If the results have given Cameron a headache, then I doubt he’ll be requiring any paracetamol any time soon!

    I mean, seriously. Who in their right mind could claim that the results were anything other than an unexpected boon for the Conservatives? A hugely dominant win in the referendum and even the peculiar bonus of small gains at council level.

    If Cameron can achieve that with a struggling economy and a vociferous (sometimes violent) anti-cuts campaign, then one can only wonder how his party would fare in a benign/prosperous economic climate.

    I’m not saying that will necessarily happen, incidentally, but if by the next election the UK has returned to solid growth and tackled inflation and unemployment, Labour will look ridiculous and the Tories will be vindicated. In such a scenario, it’s very difficult to envisage anything other than a Conservative majority, particularly if the coalition can address the absurd boundary prejudice in our system.

  3. Martin McGrath

    Ipsos-Mori on LD 2010 voters: 27% would still vote LD, 20 Labour, 6 other, 5 Tory, 35 not certain to vote. Ouch! http://bit.ly/j1X1E8

  4. PJD

    1. Despite the unpopular cuts more individual voters voted Tory than Labour.

    I’ve not seen any exact figures on this but as there were no local elections in Scotland, Wales, London, Durham etc then this would have skewed the results in the Tories favour. The BBC’s projected national share had Labour 2% ahead.

    2. Labour has 25% of it’s MP’s from Scotland – which it just comprehensively lost.

    But that was for the Scottish parliament. I doubt Labour would have done as badly if it had been a General Election.

    3. Labour couldn’t even secure a majority of seats in Wales where again the Tory vote went up.

    It was a better result for Labour in Wales than 1999, 2003 and 2007.

    4. Ed Miliband is the least popular of the three party leader leaders and Labour is financially bust.

    He is also the least known leader, time is on his side as it was for Clegg and Cameron from 2005-2010.

    5. Labour have a dire poll rating – Blair was 21% ahead without the cuts at this point.

    ~40% is not dire! Blair was 21% ahead for several resons, one being the Tories had been in power for 16 years by 1995 and were very unpopular by then.

    6. In four years the economy will have turned round. The banks will be sold and tax cuts will buy the voters.

    Maybe, time will tell.

    7. Middle England will never vote Labour under Miliband – look at the electoral map in the South East.

    It was mainly blue in 1997!

    8. The forthcoming boundary changes will primarily hit the Labour strongholds.

    Yes, but I don’t think it will give the Tories the boost they hope it will. Labour’s vote is by chance quite effectively spread to maximise it’s seat winning ability.

    9. Labour has lost over 5 million voters since 1997 and had it’s worst election results last year since 1931.

    They did worse in 1983 and arguably 1987. If you are looking at raw total vote then since 1945 the Tories had only done worse in 1997-2005.

    It is unlikely that the Tories can win a majority at the next GE unless they get more than 37% of the vote, unless Labour and the Lib Dems are both on 26% or thereabouts which isn’t likely.

  5. Anon E Mouse

    PJD – The sooner the official opposition in this country stop making excuses for poor performance and start getting real the better.

    I only mention those items above after seeing Andy Burnham (election coordinator) on Sky yesterday spinning away. People like Cameron the best out of all the current leaders, followed by Clegg then Miliband.

    Contrary to Gordon Brown’s assertion about the economy, Boom and Bust has not been abolished by Labour and when the economy has turned round, which it will, the Tories will win outright.

    Labour activists need to step back and ask themselves if Ed Miliband is as big a beast as Charles Clarke, Alan Johnson, John Reid or even his brother.

    The union dinosaurs forced the wrong candidate onto the party and until people get rid of him there is no hope – the polls show it. Even without the cuts Blair was 21% ahead at this point after he got the leadership. Without reaching out, being inclusive and changing the leader there is no chance…

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