Kevin Meagher looks ahead to the Irish General Election, taking place on Friday, examining the evidence and looking at whether this might be Sinn Fein's moment.
Ireland’s Celtic Tiger economy may have grown mangy – but it remains luminescent next to the reputation of the Irish political class. Irish voters now have such low regard for their political masters that a recent poll showed only Greeks, Israelis, Nigerians and Romanians rated their political parties as being more corrupt.
The general election on Friday is potentially, then, the equivalent of a political ducking stool. Pre-empting the possibility of an early immersion, Irish Fianna Fail premier, Brian Cowan, finds himself the first sitting taoiseach in the history of the state not to stand for re-election, his stock fatally depleted by the fallout from last November’s humiliating bail-out from the International Monetary Fund and European Union.
Correspondingly, the fortunes of his Fianna Fail party have plummeted too. Once the electoral juggernaut of Irish politics, governing for 61 of the last 79 years, current opinion polls have them trailing in third place.
In Irish politics’ fairly predictable pattern, Fianna Fail’s misfortune will be to Fine Gael’s benefit. Bookmaker Paddy Power recently halved the odds on them winning an overall majority from 16/1 to 8/1. They need 84 seats in Ireland’s 166-member Dail for that to happen (however a coalition with the Irish Labour party remains the most likely scenario).
But in some respects, the most interesting aspects of the campaign lie elsewhere. What impact will the record number of independent candidates have on the result? Will current junior coalition partners, The Greens, be wiped out? How far will Fianna Fail actually drop? And what about Sinn Fein?
One thing is already certain about 2011: this is the year Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the IRA, got serious about the south.
Widely regarded as a Northern Ireland party by many Southern Irish voters, Sinn Fein is mounting its most determined effort ever to burnish its all-Ireland credentials. It has a lot of rowing to do; the party did not even recognise the Irish state before 1986, determined to do nothing that accepted the partition of the country imposed in 1922.
Yet Sinn Fein – Irish for “ourselves alone” – is positioning itself as the antidote to the cosy club of Irish political parties accused of bringing the Republic to its knees. The sense of national humiliation is palpable; and symptomatic, voters believe, of the corrupting nexus between the Irish political and business elites. Last Thursday, the party published its election manifesto, titled ‘There is a Better Way’, reminiscent, it has to be said, of New Labour’s 1997 manifesto, ‘Because Britain Deserves Better’.
Sinn Fein’s pitch is three-fold: left-wing economic populism; an attack on the complacency and nepotism of the old political class of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael; and an appeal to patriotic self-respect (they promise to “burn the bondholders” who have humiliated Ireland).
Their economic policy consists of slower deficit reduction; a seven billion euro job-creation programme which includes a “labour–intensive” essential infrastructure programme; and a wage subsidy to protect small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). They also want a wealth tax on non-farmland assets worth more than one million euros; the restoration of the minimum wage; and the return of social welfare payments to 2010 levels.
To cover their flank, they have also sounded upbeat about the importance of entrepreneurs.
But with 50,000 young people set to leave Ireland to search for work this year and next, reminiscent of darker days in Ireland, even the more radical aspects of Sinn Fein’s prospectus do not seem that outlandish to many angry voters.
Predictions of their gains vary. An early poll had them projected to win up to 22 seats in the Dail. A more granular constituency-based analysis has them winning around 13 seats under Ireland’s Single Transferable Vote system. What is inevitable, however, is that they will increase their parliamentary representation markedly from the five seats they currently hold – and they are certain to get the seven seats the party needs to have full speaking rights in the next Dail.
Some party insiders readily concede theirs is a “two election” strategy, reminiscent of how they clawed their way past the SDLP over time north of the border.
But there is no shortage of ambition this time around, even if it may turn out to be far-fetched. Party president, Gerry Adams, himself leading the party’s charge standing as a candidate in Louth has called for nothing less than a realignment of Irish politics, claiming:
“It… makes sense for progressive politics. It is time for all those who believe that a government without Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael can deliver a better Ireland – to work together.
“A hundred years ago James Connolly appealed for unity among the left in Ireland. It made sense then. It makes sense today.”
But it is not as comradely as Adams suggests; the Irish Labour Party, although widely expected to end up in government as a junior coalition partner, is locked in combat with Sinn Fein for centre-left voters. The Sunday Business Post recently ran a piece titled:
‘Labour and Sinn Féin in fight for left supremacy’
And it doesn’t stop there. Despite still classing itself as:
“A radical, campaigning, activist party dedicated to achieving a society free from prejudice and discrimination, and providing justice, equal opportunity for all in a 32-County democratic, socialist, united Ireland.”
…Sinn Fein shares the centre left spectrum not only with Labour but with other leftist groupings and a record number of independents. This looks likely to split the anti-establishment vote that Sinn Fein needs to solidify.
And there have been false dawns before. In the 2007 general election, early predictions of a Sinn Fein breakthrough proved unfounded as the party failed to make any headway. And in 2009, Sinn Fein’s Mary-Lou McDonald lost their only seat in the European elections.
Sinn Fein traditionally suffers from a pincer attack with Fianna Fail providing a ‘respectable’ vehicle for voters with republican sympathies, while the Irish Labour party provides a credible centre-left alternative. But behind the hubris of the election campaign, there is a confluence of factors and anniversaries that may provide grist to Sinn Fein’s mill.
The general election in the Republic will be followed by elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly on 5th May. Given the enduring schisms within unionism, there remains a prospect of Sinn Fein topping the poll for the first time ever north of the border and thereby making a claim on the role of first minister.
Northern Ireland secretary, Owen Paterson, recently indicated the government would not block that appointment if that were to happen, despite angst from some unionist quarters.
Later this year, the Irish will elect their next president when Mary McAleese’s term expires. A weak field may see Gerry Adams enter the fray. Although largely symbolic, the role would be powerful validation that Sinn Fein had emerged as a respectable, mainstream party.
Whatever lingering reservations some Irish voters may have about Sinn Fein, there is no doubt that the party’s leaders have star wattage. These are the international faces of Irish politics, meeting presidents and prime ministers, shading the parochial backwoodsmen of the Irish political parties; it is Sinn Fein’s website that has Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness posing with a smiling Nelson Mandela.
Indeed, the most spectacular example of this came last year when former IRA commander Martin McGuinness was judged Northern Ireland’s “most impressive” political leader, even gaining approval from many unionists. It all goes a long way in helping mainstream the Sinn Fein brand, the party’s most immediate strategic priority.
Sinn Fein’s trio of electoral opportunities is set against a brace of important anniversaries in recent Irish history.
Next month sees the thirtieth anniversary of the start of the Hunger Strike when ten republican prisoners in the Maze prison starved themselves to death in protest at the British government’s refusal to grant them status as political prisoners. The anniversary has enduring emotional resonance – and political significance too, as the strikes catapulted republicans into politics, spawning the “ballot box and the armalite” strategy that has led Sinn Fein, inexorably, to this point.
2011 is also the fortieth anniversary of the imposition of internment without trial in Northern Ireland, which saw hundreds of innocent Catholics dragged from their beds and imprisoned without trial. Such anniversaries underscore the scale of British policy failures in Northern Ireland in the early 1970s and 1980s.
There will be no earthquakes in Ireland’s election. They will lose decisively, but speculation about the annihilation of Fianna Fail will prove hyperbolic. Fine Gael, led by the lacklustre Enda Kenny, will prove no more popular or successful over the medium term. But the result may well signal the point that the mould of Irish politics cracked and Sinn Fein emerged as a political force in southern Ireland for the first time since the party won three-quarters of the parliamentary seats in Ireland at the 1918 general election.
To watchers on this side of the Irish Sea, that seems like an eternity ago; in Irish politics, however, it is the blink of an eye.
30 Responses to “Irish election: Sinn Féin’s moment?”
Paul Evans
A good round-up of Sinn Féin’s prospects in #ge11 here http://bit.ly/dUhmfc
auerfeld
The UK reaction to this will be interesting. RT @Paul0Evans1: A good round-up of Sinn Féin’s prospects in #ge11 here http://bit.ly/dUhmfc
Alasdair Ross
RT @Paul0Evans1: A good round-up of Sinn Féin’s prospects in #ge11 here http://bit.ly/dUhmfc
Liathain
The 2007 election (which Kevin describes as a false dawn) was actually pretty embarrassing for Sinn Fein. A melt down in the capital (their words not mine) and a washout in many constituencies they had spent the campaign talking up really deflated many of their activists.
“One thing is already certain about 2011: this is the year Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the IRA, got serious about the south.”
Sorry to be abrupt but to put it simply it’s not – they’ve been serious about the south for the last decade, their problem is the south hasn’t taken them seriously.
For example SF ran more candidates in the 2007 general election than they are running in 2011. Since around 2000 SF have dropped some serious money in the Republic but to little avail. This time round they’ve been forced to float in some northern personalities and have had to persuade some old timers to change their plans and not to retire but to run again to keep their seats (Ferris and O’Caolain for example).
It was widely assumed the bold Gerry would be taking a shot at the presidency later this year but their failure to consolidate their seats let alone gain new ones in 2007 put the kibosh on that (and there is already a strong field of candidates declared – Gerry aint gonna fancy throwing his name in the hat).
Mary Lou McDonald has completely failed to impress and her unemployment in 2009 caused several of SF’s longest standing councillors in Dublin to leave the party rather than fall on their sword and give her a seat in the Council. They brought a lot of the organisation with them and Christy Burke (running as an independent against Mary Lou) is one to watch. Her star has fallen pretty quick since then both internally and externally.
STV tends not to favour SF as many voters who will transfer from FG (or to a lesser extent FG) would consider Labour but never SF – similarly many SF voters transfer to Labour but never to FG.
I’d imagine that SF will come home with about a dozen seats in the Dail (as will the Trots in the ULA) . Considering the once in a lifetime scenario that this election is taking place in I wouldn’t be happy if I was an SF member and I was being told it was a ‘two election strategy’. This kind of moment may not come around for another 50 years and already looking to the next election is defeatism and/or spin.
The North is a different kettle of fish altogether and for all the talk of SF dominance the numbers tell a different story. While the schisms within Unionism are great entertainment the DUP:UUP voter numbers tend to have reflected the respective vote ratio in the nationalist side.
At the moment SF trail the DUP by 9 seats. The DUP are starting to get back into their campaigning stride and a lack lustre UUP are abjectly failing to make an impression. Coupled with a poor new leader and recent defections the UUP are also watching Alliance cut deep into the liberal part of their vote.
SF’s discipline is starting to show some cracks with Gerry McHugh leaving the party and taking his seat with him and Paul Butler slighted by Adams one too many times and standing down in Lisburn (where he was well on course to lose his seat anyway). The SDLP have seemed to have bottomed out and are on course to hold most of their 16 seats (may lose one or two and pick up one or two in different constituencies).
All these things taken into consideration it really is hard to see where SF will get the dozen seats or so it needs to become the largest party in the North. They’ll do well and hold most of what they have and maybe add a few, no question but hard to see em leapfrogging the DUP. Still as they do at every election it gives them a target with which to motivate their base (similarly the talked up targeting Mark Durkan at the last Assembly election, Nigel Dodd’s at the last Westminster and Bab’s topping the poll in the Euro’s)
One consideration rarely mentioned is due to the botched negotiation in St Andrews we cannot appoint the First Minister without simultaneously appointing the deputy First Minister. This allows a unionist veto which SF somehow managed to miss when they started to pick apart the GFA. Great.
Still in the south anyway, any amount of ridiculous clichés and hoary old harking to the Rising doesn’t wash with the majority of people when you’re faced with the stark option of the dole queue or emigration.
PS not that it makes a blind bit of difference ,but FF’s slogan ‘Real Plan, Better Future’ also shares the similarity with New Labours 97 slogan. Meh, I’ve never met anyone who votes for a tag line.
Kevin Meagher
Liathian – Some interesting points, but as I say, this election is unlikely to see a fundamental shift. The Shinners recognise that. Their expectations will be realistic. What this election offers them is the chance to develop their electoral toehold in the South into a foothold.
A reasonable performance will see them emerge on 12-15 seats. From that point, they really will have a chip and a chair in Southern politics for the first time. This is, of course, how things started off in the North; with SF gradually supplanting the SDLP.
Sinn Fein’s biggest opportunity – and challenge – is how to process the party’s fame, pull, notoriety and instant brand recognition into a coherent electoral offer. If they find the right blend and go mainstream, future elections will see them hard to shift.
So this election is not a “once in a lifetime scenario” as you suggest. Fine Gael and Enda Kenny – who are clearly set to govern alone – or with Labour’s support – are quite useless. They will be mired in no time. FG were trying to get rid of poor old Enda less than a year ago!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/article7149148.ece
The question is whether Fianna Fail will mount a comeback, and how quickly. Micheal Martin is considerably more popular than Brian Cowan. A backhanded compliment if ever there was one, but he seems to be having a good campaign. If FF loses support to SF, will he be able to pull it back?
So the presidential race offers “a strong field of candidates”. You’re not convincing me! Usual cast of hacks. Gerry Adams may find it hard to resist, but probably too early in their southern strategy to have a cat in hell’s chance of winning. But SF has nothing to lose in trying…