Poll worry for coalition as pain of cuts begins to dawn

Labour leads the Tories in the Times/Populus poll series for the first time in three years in the wake of the comprehensive spending review as voters begin to realise the full scale of the coalition's cuts agenda. Ed Miliband's party are up one point on 38 per cent, with the Conservatives down two points on 37 per cent and the Liberal Democrats up one point on 15 per cent.

Labour leads the Tories in the Times/Populus poll series for the first time in three years (£) in the wake of the comprehensive spending review as voters begin to realise the full scale of the coalition’s cuts agenda. Ed Miliband’s party are up one point on 38 per cent, with the Conservatives down two points on 37 per cent and the Liberal Democrats up one point on 15 per cent. Better news for the Conservatives, however, in the headline Guardian/ICM voting intention figures, which put David Cameron’s party on 39% (up 4 points on the month), Labour on 36% (down 1), and the Liberal Democrats on 16% (down 2) – the first time the Conservatives have a lead in this series since July.

Of greater concern to ministers are the economic confidence indicators and the public’s reactions to the cuts in both polls. Populus (£) found that only a third of voters believe the economy will fare well over the next year for the country as a whole (down from 44% in June), with 38% believing the cuts are fair (c/f. 57% in June), 51% saying they are cutting more than they have to (39% in June), and 53% saying they are getting the balance between tax rises and spending cuts wrong (31% in June).

While in the Guardian, ICM found that 48% of those polled said the cuts go too far, with 36% thinking the balance is right and 8% wanting them to go further, with overall public backing for the cuts down from 55% in July to 44% now, and opposition to the scale of the cuts up from 38% in July to 48% now. The poll also found 58% of public sector workers think the cuts go too far, as against 43% of private sector workers.

Today’s Times also shows (£) Labour ahead on an average of all polls since the 2005 general election for the first time since early 2006, while the graph below, showing the average of all polls since the 2010 general election (source: UK Polling Report), shows the gap between the Conservatives and Labour dwindling fast, with the Liberal Democrats in freefall:

The latest YouGov tracker poll for The Sun, meanwhile, shows the main parties neck-and-neck on 40% with the Liberal Democrats well below their ICM and Populus ratings on only 11%.

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30 Responses to “Poll worry for coalition as pain of cuts begins to dawn”

  1. Boris Watch

    On this polling stuff, http://bit.ly/ayZdxr , the interesting thing for me is the effective upper limit on Tory % share

  2. False Economy

    Poll woe for coalition as pain of cuts begins to dawn http://bit.ly/aB8GRT

  3. Richard Bradley

    RT @leftfootfwd: Poll worry for coalition as pain of cuts begins to dawn http://bit.ly/c7Me8c

  4. Jane Howie

    RT @leftfootfwd: Poll worry for coalition as pain of cuts begins to dawn http://bit.ly/c7Me8c

  5. Rajeev Trikha

    RT @leftfootfwd: Poll worry for coalition as pain of cuts begins to dawn: http://bit.ly/ayZdxr reports @shamikdas

  6. JamieSW

    RT @leftfootfwd: Poll worry for coalition as pain of cuts begins to dawn: http://bit.ly/ayZdxr reports @shamikdas

  7. Shamik Das

    RT @leftfootfwd: Poll worry for coalition as pain of cuts begins to dawn: http://bit.ly/ayZdxr reports @shamikdas

  8. yorkierosie

    RT @leftfootfwd: Poll worry for coalition as pain of cuts begins to dawn: http://bit.ly/ayZdxr reports @shamikdas

  9. Maizey R.

    RT @leftfootfwd: Poll worry for coalition as pain of cuts begins to dawn: http://bit.ly/ayZdxr reports @shamikdas

  10. Northern TUC

    RT @FalseEcon: Poll woe for coalition as pain of cuts begins to dawn http://bit.ly/aB8GRT

  11. Guy Manchester

    Poll worry for coalition as pain of cuts begins to dawn http://bit.ly/9LIPnf <== Interesting reading if reading about polls interests U

  12. vi__sa

    Shamik, don’t read too much into this poll. People haven’t begun to realise anything. They are just responding to the doom mongering by Labour and the media, led by Labour’s beloved BBC. This poll just reflects that. If people are really hurting, the gap should be more.

    “While ICM found that 48% of those polled said the cuts go too far, with 36% thinking the balance is right and 8% wanting them to go further”

    Also, re: this -if you add this up, the total is 102 % !!!!!! I believe the 48% figure is wrong. The first reports said ‘almost 48%’. Maybe that is 46%? Closer than you think!

    And then, considering the size of the Labour electorate – public sector workers, people on benefits, champagne socialists like Polly Toynbee (who would rather keep people poor so they can be patronised), it is amazing the Coalition has any support!!

  13. Martin Johnston

    RT @leftfootfwd: Poll worry for coalition as pain of cuts begins to dawn: http://bit.ly/ayZdxr reports @shamikdas

  14. harry potter

    those ‘best fit curves’ on the graph are a bit disingenuous. especially the downturn in conservative support implied but not supported by the data. you lefties just can’t stop lying can you.

  15. Shamik Das

    Actually, “harry potter”, it is supported by the data. Download the figures, plot the graph and see for yourself.

  16. Robert

    I do not think the Tories are great, but to return Newer labour to power, I think not! no matter what a group of people say in a dam poll.

  17. Jose

    Re. the poll, the Coalition’s view at this stage will be ‘so what’. They’ve been in power for 6 months and everyone knows most of the apparent bad news will be at the beginning of parliament and not the end if they want to be re-elected!

  18. Kevin leonard

    They say the only poll that matters is the election which is why the condemnation are already running scared and trying to put it off for 5 years to give them time to gerrymander the outcome in their favour.
    Personally I do not see this happening as I believe that the fall of this government will be next winter….

  19. harry potter

    you obviously know nothing about statistical analysis if you think that that is reasonable. where’s the error bars? why an order 2 fit rather than straight line. you are lying with statistics ‘shamik’

  20. harry potter

    just downloaded the data and plotted myself re your advice ‘shamik’.

    the tories support is flat but slightly rising on a linear fit.

    you decided to use a 2nd order polynomial to make it go down at the end.
    why stop there? a 3rd order polynomial goes up at the end. a 4th order down a bit.

    what a simpleton

  21. Shamik Das

    Wrong again I’m afraid. It’s perfectly fair to draw a curve – as the Times did in their analysis of all polls since May 2005. And how else would one demonstrate fluctuations in support. Throw around rubbish insults behind a (rubbish) pseudonym all you like, they only seek to demonstrate how you’ve lost the argument.

  22. jeff_h

    you get your stats advice from the times?

    look at the data. the conservative support goes up and the along within error bounds.

    you put in a curve because you are a lefty and a liar

  23. Stephen W

    “with the Liberal Democrats in freefall”

    No, it shows the lib dems falling at first but this fall flattening out rapidly (or at least as rapidly as labour are catching up the tories) and their support now at a stable level.

    Are you blind or are you just lieing to suit your own narrative?

  24. Wendy Maddox

    RT @leftfootfwd: Poll worry for coalition as pain of cuts begins to dawn http://bit.ly/c7Me8c

  25. Kevin Richards

    Lets hope this trend continues through to May RT @leftfootfwd: Poll worry for coalition as pain of cuts begins to dawn http://bit.ly/c7Me8c

  26. Patrick Ward

    vi__sa can’t count…………. ““While ICM found that 48% of those polled said the cuts go too far, with 36% thinking the balance is right and 8% wanting them to go further”
    Also, re: this -if you add this up, the total is 102 % !!!!!! I believe the 48% figure is wrong. The first reports said ‘almost 48%’. Maybe that is 46%? Closer than you think!”
    …………………48 plus 36, plus 8, makes 92, not 102!

  27. Rich

    Nice to see I wasn’t the only one wondering at the reality gap between the graph and the words about it. It’s certainly looking better for Labour than it has been, but that’s a shockingly bad analysis of the data.

  28. blogs of the world

    Labour leads the Tories in the Times/Populus poll for the first time in three years as vot… http://reduce.li/c6zcvy #worry

  29. Another Tory poll fall in wake of spending review | Left Foot Forward

    […] Labour ahead of the Conservatives for the first time in three years. Just like last week’s Times/Populus poll, a ComRes poll for today’s Independent gives Labour a narrow lead, up three points on 37 per […]

  30. stephen ryan

    as a statistician, when fitting graphs, the only reliable trend fitting lines are linear or exponential functions. Never use polynomials, very few natural phenomena are polynomials, I can think of parabolic arc functions only (the curve of throwing a ball) or perhaps sine wave behaviour in seasonal patterns. Far better to look at Tory support flattening out with a potential small decline towards the end. ps, I’m a leftie but not a liar

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