Ed Balls set for 3rd place

Ed Balls has announced the support of two new MPs. Left Foot Forward's model now projects that he will come third.

Ed Balls has today announced the support of two new MPs – Michael Connarty who had nominated Andy Burnham and Ian Davidson who had initially supported Diane Abbott. The shift puts him third in Left Foot Forward’s projection of the leadership race outcome for the first time – but well within the margin of error.

MPs and MEPs make up one third of the electoral college. Each MP carries roughly the same weight as 1,000 Labour party members or 4,000 members of affiliated trade unions. Each MP’s vote carries a weight of 0.12 per cent in the electoral college.

With no new information on the trade union or membership sections of the electoral college since YouGov conducted a poll for The Sun and Left Foot Forward’s analysis of CLP votes was calculated, the news today and Jack Straw’s nomination of David Miliband last week alters the calculus to put Ed Balls in third place.

Left Foot Forward’s model now places David Miliband in the lead on first preferences with 36.31 per cent, Ed Miliband on 30.98, and Ed Balls on 11.01%. Diane Abbott and Andy Burnham are tied for last place and just fractionally behind on 10.99%. The gap for third place is well within the margin of error.

As I outlined two weeks ago in a blog for Channel 4 News, Ed Balls is likely to be the kingmaker with his second preferences determining the outcome.

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