Ed Balls set for 3rd place

Ed Balls has announced the support of two new MPs. Left Foot Forward's model now projects that he will come third.

Ed Balls has today announced the support of two new MPs – Michael Connarty who had nominated Andy Burnham and Ian Davidson who had initially supported Diane Abbott. The shift puts him third in Left Foot Forward’s projection of the leadership race outcome for the first time – but well within the margin of error.

MPs and MEPs make up one third of the electoral college. Each MP carries roughly the same weight as 1,000 Labour party members or 4,000 members of affiliated trade unions. Each MP’s vote carries a weight of 0.12 per cent in the electoral college.

With no new information on the trade union or membership sections of the electoral college since YouGov conducted a poll for The Sun and Left Foot Forward’s analysis of CLP votes was calculated, the news today and Jack Straw’s nomination of David Miliband last week alters the calculus to put Ed Balls in third place.

Left Foot Forward’s model now places David Miliband in the lead on first preferences with 36.31 per cent, Ed Miliband on 30.98, and Ed Balls on 11.01%. Diane Abbott and Andy Burnham are tied for last place and just fractionally behind on 10.99%. The gap for third place is well within the margin of error.

As I outlined two weeks ago in a blog for Channel 4 News, Ed Balls is likely to be the kingmaker with his second preferences determining the outcome.

24 Responses to “Ed Balls set for 3rd place”

  1. newleader

    //www.edballs.tk RT @niallkellySDLP RT @leftfootfwd: Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8

  2. Hitchin England

    Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8 via @leftfootfwd

  3. David Baines

    “@leftfootfwd: Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8” > Would be much better result for him than I reckon he expected.

  4. newleader

    //www.edballs.tk RT @HitchinEng Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8 via @leftfootfwd

  5. Andy Sutherland

    RT @leftfootfwd: Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8

  6. Andy Sutherland

    “@leftfootfwd: Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8” < 1 MP = 1,000 member votes. That HAS to change. Ridiculous skew. OMOV

  7. newleader

    //www.edballs.tk RT @andy_s_64 “@leftfootfwd: Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8” < 1 MP = 1,000 member votes. That HAS to …

  8. william

    me miserum. our beloved movement is bankrupt according to comrade prescott,our most successful election winner has become addicted to buying property, and now we learn that the architect of the destruction of the economy(and the loss of the election)will have his mates decide who leads us back to the promised land.as the mbros know f-all about economics, vote BURNHAM

  9. newleader

    //www.edballs.tk RT @new_leader //www.edballs.tk RT @andy_s_64 “@leftfootfwd: Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8” < 1 MP = 1,…

  10. newleader

    //www.edballs.tk RT @new_leader //www.edballs.tk RT @andy_s_64 RT @leftfootfwd: Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8

  11. DrKMJ

    Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8 via @leftfootfwd

  12. newleader

    //www.edballs.tk RT @DrKMJ Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8 via @leftfootfwd

  13. LockPickerNet

    Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8 via @leftfootfwd

  14. Tomdaylight

    If it’s that close between the bottom three then I can’t see how the third place candidate (if it even is Ed Balls – they’re all within the margin of error) is materially a “kingmaker” above the other two candidates.

  15. Guido Fawkes

    Punters have him going out first, chance for you to clean up at the bookies.

  16. Hitchin England

    Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8 via @leftfootfwd

  17. newleader

    //www.edballs.tk RT @HitchinEng Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8 via @leftfootfwd

  18. newleader

    //www.edballs.tk RT @new_leader //www.edballs.tk RT @HitchinEng Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8 via @leftfootfwd

  19. Anon E Mouse

    Will – I caught Ed Balls on R5 this morning about immigration and Brown with the bigot thing and I have to say he came across very well – seemingly honest and open in his reply to the questions and also he did latch onto Michael Gove and those civil servants that screwed up the schools finance stuff.

    But I just cannot see him as Prime Minister – too many links to the last cabinet, the pictures of him dressed as a Nazi etc etc.

    I think the problem is all the candidates except Abbott are tainted by association to Gordon Brown and his useless handling of the economy and personally I don’t think it matters who’s elected unless the policies are right.

    Labour needs to refresh the way it engages with the electorate and actually start listening instead of lecturing…

  20. Jonathan Tench

    Is this good for DM or EM's 2nd preference vote? RT @leftfootfwd: Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8

  21. Will Straw

    Tomdaylight – Balls isn’t kingmaker because he’s marginally in 3rd place, he’s kingmaker because who his MP followers give their second preferences to will be decisive. Abbott and Burnham’s supporters are much clearer about where their 2nd preferences will go. See this for more details: //www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/labour+leadership+will+be+decided+by+balls+voters/3737907

    Guido – Good to know. Burnham and Abbott will certainly do better among union and party members but he is picking up respect in the PLP which should keep him off the bottom. If he comes 4th, I suspect that either Abbott or Burnham’s supporters will both give him enough of a boost to raise him to 3rd place.

    Anon – I agree. Balls has carried out by far the best ‘air war’ media-focused campaign in this leadership election and is probably the most energetic campaigner too. But his poor CLP numbers show that he doesnt have much of a ‘ground war’ strategy.

  22. Lynda

    RT @leftfootfwd: Ed Balls set for 3rd place //bit.ly/bvQsd8

  23. Ed Miliband projected to win Labour crown | Left Foot Forward

    […] Abbott will come bottom with Ed Balls likely to overtake Andy Burnham and finish third – a projection first made by LFF in August. Perversely, Diane Abbott coming bottom is likely to help Ed Miliband. A candidate […]

Leave a Reply