Alexander: David wins on second preferences

Douglas Alexander this evening insisted that David Miliband was winning the race for 2nd preferences. But Ed's campaign believe they are the grassroots candidate.

David Miliband’s campaign is confident he will prove just as popular a second choice for voters in the Labour leadership contest as his brother Ed. At a bloggers’ briefing today in London, campaign co-chair Douglas Alexader, sought to challenge the common assumption, promoted by Gary Gibbon among others, that Ed Miliband has a lead in second preferences.

Mr Alexander cited anecdotal evidence that Miliband Snr was winning a series of Constituency Labour Party nominations including those where second preferences were decisive. David Miliband has a lead over his brother of 110 CLPs to 79 CLPs although some contests have been fought on a winner-takes-all ballot rather than using the transferable votes system set out in the rules.

The focus on second preferences indicates that the Miliband campaign are not expecting to win a knock out blow in the first round. But Alexander refused to write off the chances of Balls, Burnham and Abbott coming second despite the weight of evidence that the contest is a two-horse race between the Miliband brothers.

In suggesting that David is as popular as Ed on second preferences, Alexander has an unlikely ally in right-wing blogger Guido Fawkes, who is staking money on David Miliband, on the basis that, “Experience shows that second preferences tend to break in correlation with first preferences.”

An Ed Miliband campaign spokesperson this evening countered that their candidate had emerged as the candidate of the grass roots:

“It’s not just that we are running a campaign nearly entirely staffed by volunteers, but also that a pattern is emerging where if a CLP or Trade Union has canvassed its members widely, they tend to nominate Ed.”

“This bodes well for Ed when individual members are considering where to place their support and preference.”

Claim and counter-claim are hard to verify while so little information exists in the public domain. In the absence of sufficient funds to pay for a poll of Labour members and trade union members, Left Foot Forward has used Labour List’s self-selective poll for our model of the leadership election. But we are now seeking a more scientific approach by asking readers who are Labour members to submit the first round results of their party’s local nominations.

Anybody with information about their local CLP nomination should post it in the comments section below or tweet them using the #CLPVote hashtag. We are interested in constituency name, candidate nominated, methodology (ie first-past-the-post or transferable voting), and scores in the 1st round of voting (ie before any candidates were knocked out).

Left Foot Forward will collate the information in a google doc and use the information to guide our leadership model.

22 Responses to “Alexander: David wins on second preferences”

  1. Will Straw

    Help @leftfootfwd determine who is winning among Labour members by telling us the breakdown of your #CLPVote //bit.ly/aboYDl

  2. Simon

    I hardly think Guido Fawkes is a reliable commentator of this contest.

  3. Andy Sutherland

    RT @leftfootfwd: Alexander: David wins on second preferences – help us determine if he's right //bit.ly/aboYDl < #AnyoneButDM FFS!

  4. Sunder Katwala

    RT @wdjstraw: Help @leftfootfwd determine who is winning among Labour members by telling us the breakdown of your #CLPVote //bit.ly/aboYDl

  5. winston k moss

    RT @leftfootfwd: Alexander: David wins on second preferences – help us determine if he's right //bit.ly/aboYDl

  6. Sunder Katwala

    This from larry turner on twitter ..

    Rushcliffe CLP nom by GC – previous GC voted against all member meeting by 6 to 2

    Vote: DM: 7 EM: 6 DA: 1

  7. Sunder Katwala

    Katie Curtis

    @nextleft castle point – GC (which is made up of nearly all active members) it was AV and was won in third round (Ed Miliband). 20 votes total.

  8. Dominic Campbell

    "some contests have been fought on winner-takes-all rather than using transferable votes system set out in the rules" //bit.ly/cnZC3w

  9. Sunder Katwala

    please use #CLPVote hashtag to record vote breakdown of your CLP nomination (see @LeftFootFwd //bit.ly/aboYDl) & pls RT

  10. LabourList

    RT @nextleft: please use #CLPVote hashtag to record vote breakdown of your CLP nomination (see @LeftFootFwd //bit.ly/aboYDl) & pls RT

  11. Mark Colburn

    Mcr Withington, all member meeting, Ed Miliband, transferable vote used. First round result: David Miliband 22, Ed Miliband 19, Andy Burnham 4, others 0. Ed got the transfers to overtake his brother to win the nomination.

  12. Political Scrapbook

    RT @nextleft: please use #CLPVote hashtag to record vote breakdown of your CLP nomination (see @LeftFootFwd //bit.ly/aboYDl) & pls RT

  13. Andy Dowland

    Not a CLP but UNISON South West Labour Link Committee voted to decide who to back in the national UNISON decision.

    On the first round, Ed M got 5 votes, Andy 4, Diane 3, David 2 and Ed B 0 (David and Ed B eliminated)
    Both David’s 2nd preferences were for Andy so second round was Andy 6, Ed M 5, Diane 3
    Diane’s 3 votes were distributed 1 to Ed M, 1 to Andy (via Ed B) and 1 not distributed.
    Final round was therefore Andy 7, Ed M 6

    Taunton CLP I’ve only got partial information on, David got 8 out of 17 first preference votes but didn’t receive a single 2nd preference and got beat in the final round by Ed M 9-8

  14. Will Straw

    RT @nextleft: please use #CLPVote hashtag to record vote breakdown of your CLP nomination (see //bit.ly/aboYDl) & pls RT

  15. Joshua Peck

    Bethnal Green and Bow CLP and Poplar and Limehouse CLP, meeting jointly as Tower Hamlets Borough Labour Party GC, last night nominated Ed. Ed, David and Diane were proposed and the two rounds of votes were Ed 15/21; David 14/15, Diane 11/-.

  16. Joshua Peck

    Sorry – should be clear Ed Miliband was nominated

  17. Stewart Owadally

    RT @leftfootfwd: Alexander: David wins on second preferences //bit.ly/cnZC3w

  18. John

    Gateshead CLP nominated David Miliband.

    Process – someone from the floor proposed that we nominate David Miliband. the Chair took this as a motion, and stressed it was up to those who either didn’t want to nominate or who wanted to nominate someone else to vote against this motion.

    Vote – all member meeting, I think about 40 in the room. Miliband got 17 votes, and I think about 9 voted against. Presumably the remaining hadn’t yet decided what they thought.

  19. Scott Seamons

    CLP nominations r stupid & undemocratic! Check spreadsheet at bottom //bit.ly/cnZC3w #labourleadership Just 27 voices in Brum Ladywood!

  20. KieranHutchinsonDean

    RT @ScottSeamons: CLP nominations r stupid & undemocratic! Check spreadsheet at bottom //bit.ly/cnZC3w #labourleadership Just 27 vo …

  21. Sunder Katwala

    Do use #CLPVote hashtag to record vote breakdown of CLP nominations – new or old (see //bit.ly/aboYDl)

  22. Ian

    Corby CLP nominated Diane Abbott. About 40-50 people in the room, alternative vote system ranked 1-5. Ed Balls eliminated first, then David Miliband, then Diane won.

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