Afghanistan: Future for UK troops remains uncertain & dangerous

In his first prime minster’s questions today David Cameron described Afghanistan as his “top priority”, urging the public to “give it time”, six months on from the troop surge. At yesterday’s National Security Council meeting in Chequers, defence chiefs outlined the changes in British command structure in Helmand to Mr Cameron and his foreign secretary. Foremost of these was the transfer of command of British troops operating in the province to US Marine command. This has been expected for some time.

Of the almost 10,000 British troops in Afghanistan, 8,500 are currently deployed in the volatile Helmand area, but as part of the recent US surge into Afghanistan, up to 20,000 US Marines have arrived in the area to support British efforts. It is therefore reasonable and practical that the majority force should be commanded by their own Major General Richard Mills, whatever the initial impact this may have on British prestige.

However, beneath the certainty of the command change lies a deeper uncertainty as to the future role of British forces in Afghanistan. Indeed as has been previously predicted on Left Foot Foward, it is widely rumoured that this change in commanders is the first step in a redirection of effort for British troops in the volatile country.

Of the 289 British casualties in Afghanistan to date, the vast majority have been in Helmand, and in particular the extremely dangerous town of Sangin in central Helmand, where another Royal Marine was killed on Saturday. Rumours of a British handover here to US Marines have persisted and could well herald a full withdrawal from the strategic town where success has been curtailed by lack of resources and manpower. This may well prove part of a wider British withdrawal from Helmand altogether.

Meanwhile, the focus this summer will move to the Kandahar region and the imminent ‘clear and build‘ mission that will be commanded by British Major General Nick Carter. Most likely, Afghan National Army and Police will be used to clear the cities itself whilst US and NATO forces will see harder fighting in the rural Taliban strongholds bordering the city, where up to 1,000 fighters are believed to be operating.

In the longer term, it remains to be seen if British troops will follow their commander to the Kandahar region – move to Uruzgan, where the Dutch are soon to leave – or perhaps take on a greater mentoring and liaison role. Either way the path ahead remains uncertain and dangerous for the soldiers patrolling Helmand’s dusty and IED strewn roads and alleyways.