An Iain Dale post seeks to show "no evidence of any warming trend" using data from the Met office. The problem is that the methodology has no statistical basis.
With the failure of global leaders to get a legally binding agreement in Copenhagen, you would think that all those engaged in the debate would place a premium on good evidence. Not so Iain Dale.
The prominent Tory blogger posted last night a message from one of his readers, who sought to show “no evidence of any warming trend” using data from the Met office. The only problem is that the methodology has absolutely no statistical basis whatsoever although that didn’t stop Iain Dale in the comments saying:
“As far as I can see Victor has calculated the figures very well. I have now been on the site to check myself. Not sure how a “professional” coudl do it differently to him. But feel free to try!”
Giles Wilkes, a trained economist, has done exactly that on Freethinking Economist. He also puts Dale’s folly in context:
“I haven’t checked out Iain Dale’s CV, but I suspect it does not include a period studying statistics. Because he seems to believe in a recent post that taking one month every ten years from one location in the UK is a sufficient reason to justify statements about the effect of carbon dioxide throughout the entire globe over a 150 year period”
Meanwhile, in a detailed post, Unity on Liberal Conspiracy shows what the real trend in Oxford looks like using the data more accurately:
When Left Foot Forward has got things wrong in the past, we’ve been grown up enough to admit it. But will Iain Dale do the same?
And while pseudo statistics continue to be used to argue against the scientific consensus on climate change, a far better use of all our time would be spent taking action to abate our global emissions – for example, heeding Claire Spencer’s advice and signing a petition to reduce food waste and therefore 10 per cent of our greenhouse gas emissions
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17 Responses to “Will Iain Dale acknowledge his climate error?”
Claire Spencer
…and a bit of context from @leftfootfd: http://bit.ly/5NVgCA!
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Victor Southern
A trained economist? How did Glen Wilkes miss out on the crunch of the world economy? After all that is his field of training. Put 2 economists in a room and they will have 3 different opinions.
And trained statisticians – are those the same who produced stats for Labour to show a 22% decrease in crime whilst it was actually an 8% increase? The same who variously prove that child poverty is down and also up?
I made no claims at all. On the Dale site I simply reported some facts. At least I assumed they were facts since the Met Office had released them as such.
In closing I must inform you that I have seen 5 graphs today purporting to show that my idea was nonsense. Odd that the graphs have no coincidence in pattern whatsoever – the one above being the most extreme expression of subjective manipulation. It resembles a hockey stick.
paulstpancras
Will Iain Dale acknowledge his climate error? | Left Foot Forward http://bit.ly/6c4h9l (via @twttimes)
Henry
Gosh, Victor, perhaps we should just give up trying to find out the objective truth about anything.