Conservative lead on the slide

The Conservative party's lead has slipped from 19 per cent in October to 9 per cent.

Tim Montgomerie has just posted a rumour about the Conservative dwindling lead in the polls:

“According to a source inside The Guardian the Conservative lead in tomorrow’s ICM poll is down by 2% (since the recent Sunday Telegraph/ ICM poll) to 9%.

“This is in line with The Sunday Times’ YouGov poll which also showed a surprising narrowing of the Conservative advantage.”

This chart shows the Conservative lead in every ICM poll since August using data from UK polling report and includes the 9 per cent figure. It won’t make happy viewing for CCHQ.

21 Responses to “Conservative lead on the slide”

  1. Andrew Lomas

    RT @leftfootfwd: Chart showing slide in Tory ICM lead since August http://bit.ly/4sm5Di RT @TimMontgomerie: Tories 9% ahead in ICM/Guard …

  2. SSP Campsie

    RT @leftfootfwd slide in Tory ICM lead since August http://bit.ly/4sm5Di RT @TimMontgomerie:Tories 9% ahead in ICM/Guardian poll

  3. Duncan Stott

    RT @leftfootfwd Chart showing slide in Tory ICM lead since Aug http://bit.ly/4sm5Di RT @TimMontgomerie Tories 9% ahead in ICM/Guardian poll

  4. Jason Prince

    RT @leftfootfwd: Chart showing slide in Tory ICM lead since August http://bit.ly/4sm5Di RT @TimMontgomerie: Tories 9% ahead in ICM/Guardian

  5. Swagata

    It’s not a rumour, the full evidence was on guardian.co.uk an hour ago!

  6. Labour 4 a 4th Term

    RT @leftfootfwd: Chart showing slide in Tory ICM lead since August http://bit.ly/4sm5Di RT @TimMontgomerie: Tories 9% ahead in ICM/Guard …

  7. Michael Lewis

    RT @leftfootfwd: Chart showing slide in Tory ICM lead since August http://bit.ly/4sm5Di RT @TimMontgomerie: Tories 9% ahead in ICM/Guard …

  8. Anon E Mouse

    Good – It might wake everyone up a bit and both parties will be forced to tell us how they’ll sort this deficit out instead of ignoring the elephant in the room.

  9. uberVU - social comments

    Social comments and analytics for this post…

    This post was mentioned on Twitter by leftfootfwd: Chart showing slide in Tory ICM lead since August http://bit.ly/4sm5Di RT @TimMontgomerie: Tories 9% ahead in ICM/Guardian poll…

  10. Ian Carnegie

    RT @leftfootfwd: Chart showing slide in Tory ICM lead since August http://bit.ly/4sm5Di RT @TimMontgomerie: Tories 9% ahead in ICM/Guard …

  11. AP

    Let’s hope people are seeing sense and voting Green, rather than sticking to the Lib-Lab-Con-no-hope-of-change vote.

  12. Cogito Dexter

    Comres have the Tories way out ahead at 17% in the lead, as published yesterday. And Comres were, if I remember correctly, most accurate prior to the last General Election.

    While it’s true to say the polls are variable, it’s not possible to say the Tory lead is *consistently* shrinking across the board. There must, therefore, be something wrong with some of the statistics and/or the questions answered to get this variety… I tend towards averaging the leads out over all the polling organisations, which then means the Tories have a lead of somewhere around 12-14%.

  13. Margaret Young

    All to play for and time for anyone who cares about this country and our first class health and education service to attack, attack and attack again the high priest of privilege, Shameron and his weedy sidekick Gideon Osborne.

  14. Swagata

    Where’s the first class health Margaret? The evidence shows adult life expectancy, infant mortality, hospital infection and cancer survival rates all place the average Briton in a worse position than the average West European. In some places in Scotland life expectancy is below the Pakistani or Palestinian average. We’ve got a very long way to go.

    But maybe you go private Margaret, just like Gordon Brown does?

  15. Richard Blogger

    Swagata, your figures on cancer survival rates are interesting. The reason is that only the UK and a few Scandinavian countries keep complete figures. All other countries have incomplete figures, Germany, for example, has 1% of the figures that we have yet their population is half as much more.

    Compare like with like? Of course not, not when there is a political point to be made! Basically, until the rest of the world catch up with the recording rates that we have in the UK you cannot make any comparison. Or would you prefer that we picked the best 1% of our results to compare with Germany’s?

  16. Swagata

    Richard, a very fair point and yes international comparisons are fraught with problems. But I simply wanted to make the point to Margaret that British health care isn’t first class (unless she’s going BUPA, London’s private clinics treat many wealthy types who fly in from around the world).

    We are a long way from the clinical standards across the Channel. Not that everything is perfect abroad, far from it. But Britain still has some way to go to get a “first class” system, whether it’s the infamous mixed wards or rationed diagnostic/screening programmes.

  17. Margaret Young

    Swagata, I visited a friend who had been staying in hospital after an op the other day. I know the state of hospitals when the Cons were in power, underfunded with apalling waiitng lists for operations.

  18. Politics Summary: Tuesday, December 15th | Left Foot Forward

    […] One projection suggests a Cameron government would be returned with an overall majority of four. Left Foot Forward showed last night how the Conservative lead in ICM polls has fallen from 19 points in October. It […]

  19. Liz McShane

    Margaret – I can concur with you. Friends of mine who have had to use the NHS in the last few years (particularly for cancer treatment) cannot praise it enough but I can understand that for every positive experience there is a negative one. My main gripe is that certain services have been outsourced to third parties who do not share the same ethos and values that The NHS stands for – principally making a quick buck – and I think that’s why standards (especially in leaning & hygiene) have slipped hence causing infections such as MRSA. It all adds up.

  20. Liberal Conspiracy » Why it makes sense for Labour to fight the ‘class war’

    […] 6. No voter backlash Sure, the media may like to pretend it will cost them but is this true? a) Since ‘class war’ erupted Tories have lost their electoral lead significantly. […]

  21. ANIN

    What is the difference Thatcherite Labour cuts or Thatcherite Conservative cuts
    Labour privatisation of public services,NHS, NHS Logistics, Remploy remember?, and Royal Mail
    or Conservative Privatisations
    Labour war criminals or Conservative war criminal
    Labour Murdoch or Conservative Murdoch
    Labour House of Lords corruption or Conservative House of Lords corruption
    Labour QINETIQ or Conservative corruption
    Labour anti union laws or Conservative anti union laws

    Labour murder,torture,detention and rendition
    or Conservative murder,torture,detention and rendition

    Labour Conservatives two cheeks of the same Tory arse

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