As Boris Johnson visits Wales today, his Secretary of State for Wales Alun Cairns was getting a grilling on the Today Show.
Cairns was given the difficult job of arguing that a no-deal Brexit – in which 40% tariffs will be applied to UK lamb exports to the European Union – won’t devastate the Welsh lamb industry.
It’s a difficult job partly because Cairns probably doesn’t believe it himself. As Nick Robinson pointed out, while campaigning for Remain in 2016, he said: “Farming, one of our major industries, is a huge winner from Wales being in Europe.”
After the referendum though, he converted to Leave, earning a promotion and surviving Johnson’s cabinet reshuffle by defending no-deal Brexit.
According to The Farmers Union of Wales though, a no-deal Brexit would lead to “civil unrest”.
Nick Robinson asked what Cairns would say to them and their members?
First, he said, the government is trying to reach a deal with the European Union. Good luck with that.
Second, he said: “I would point to the market in Japan that has just been opened to Welsh and British sheep…that is a significant market for which we haven’t even scratched the surface.”
This market has been opened because the UK is a member of the EU. When we leave, the market will be closed.
As the government’s own website admits, the Japan free trade deal will not be transitioned for exit day.
Also, Japan is not a significant market in terms of lamb. Japan has a quarter of the EU’s population and they eat a lot less lamb than the average European.
According to the OECD, the average European Union citizen eats 1.8kg of lamb a year. The average Japanese person eats just 0.1kg.
Of course, the Japanese could start eating more lamb, and import it from Wales – just as the Welsh could develop a taste for Japanese products like eel – but it’s unlikely.
Analysis by Hybu Cig Cymru suggests 92.5% of lamb export rade could dissapear in a no-deal. As the Farmers Union of Wales say, this would be “disastrous”.
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