Labour lead in every opinion poll carried out in October
The 'Burnham bounce' has turned things around for Labour
Andy Burnham appears to have successfully turned around the Labour Party’s fortunes. Every general election voting intention poll conducted in October had Labour in the lead.
Reform have been in second place in over half of the polls, with the Tories second in the remainder.
Since Burnham became prime minister, Labour has significantly improved its standing in the polls. Much of the ground gained by Labour has come at the expense of the Greens and the Lib Dems, with the former having lost substantial support since their peak around the Gorton and Denton earlier this year.
Reform has also seen its poll rating drop significantly. While under Keir Starmer’s leadership of the Labour Party, Reform were consistently polling in first place, support for Nigel Farage’s party has fallen from around 30 points to an average of around 22 points.
What this all means for the next general election remains unclear. Labour’s lead in the polls varies from between one and nine points. If a general election were to produce a result at the lower end of that, we’d be looking at a hung parliament. If it were at the higher end, Labour would be looking at a small majority.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
Image credit: Simon Dawson / Number 10 – Creative Commons
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