Labour’s poll lead ‘not enough for anybody to contemplate’ an early election, Sir John Curtice tells party conference

The UK’s most famous polling expert Sir John Curtice has told Labour members that the party’s current poll rating is ‘not enough for anybody to contemplate’ an early election.

Curtice made the remarks at a fringe meeting at the Labour Party’s conference in Liverpool.

In a lengthy presentation at the meeting – hosted by the Demos think tank – Curtice said: “The party’s ahead, yes it’s now ahead of Reform, but that in itself – what is on average a four point lead – is not enough for anybody to contemplate the idea that this party is currently at least in a position where it could contemplate an early election”.

Curtice pointed to the current standing in the polls, including by highlighting a new poll from More in Common. Curtice said of that poll: “It’s got Labour at about 250 [seats].”

He continued by telling the meeting: “The crucial thing to note therefore is Labour’s lead is only good enough to get you to around 250 seats or so. That’s way down on where you were in 2024, it’s a deeply hung parliament in which even you and the Liberal Democrats may well not have a majority between you – even you and the Liberal Democrats and the Greens […] would not have a majority between you. The aftermath therefore means the SNP potentially have leverage.

“This is not an attractive prospect and this party needs to make much more progress before it can contemplate the prospect of an election.”

Curtice would go on to say that the polls are currently showing that Labour has been losing more of its vote in the areas it had previously performed best. He argued that this means that Labour is likely to lose more seats than if the drop in support for Labour was balanced equally across the whole country.

Curtice concluded his presentation by saying “full marks to the prime minister”, in reference to Andy Burnham having ruled out calling an election before 2029.

Despite Burnham’s recent comments, there remains intense speculation within the Labour Party and the media that should the government’s poll ratings continue to rise that an election could be called before then, with some suggesting it could be as early as November this year.

The Labour MP Chris Curtis also spoke at the Demos fringe meeting. He agreed with Curtice’s assessment, telling the meeting: “At some point this country has to get on with delivering things that aren’t general elections.”

Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward

Image credit: European Committee of the Regions – Creative Commons