After decades of economic stagnation, people want things to be different, writes Patrick Hurley MP
Patrick Hurley is the Labour MP for Southport.
Labour should treat the message being sent by the electorate in the Denton and Gorton by-election result seriously, but its message is not mysterious. It’s pretty much the same message the voters have been sending to Westminster since 2016 – “We want things to be different. We’ve been too poor for too long. We want our material conditions to be better.” Having spent eleven days in total on the campaign trail there, I heard variations on this repeatedly.
This message reflects an economy that has not delivered rising living standards for far too long. Britain has now endured roughly eighteen years of economic stagnation. Before the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, economic growth was steady and reliable. Productivity increased. Wages rose. Governments of different political colours operated within an economy that, while imperfect, was fundamentally moving forward.
But since 2008, that has no longer been true.
Economic growth has slowed dramatically compared to the long-term trend. Real wages stagnated for much of the 2010s and only recently began to recover, and even now many families feel no better off. Public services have been stretched by rising demand without the economic expansion needed to support them comfortably.
This prolonged stagnation has had political consequences. Britain has become a country defined by economic pessimism. An ever-shrinking minority of voters believe the country is heading in the right direction. Large numbers believe their children will be worse off than they are. Even when headline economic indicators improve, public perceptions remain bleak because people do not feel sustained progress in their own lives.
Political loyalties have become ever more fragile. Many voters now see their support for parties as conditional, willing to switch when they do not see tangible improvements. The old assumption that voters would remain anchored to one party over long periods has weakened significantly.
That helps explain the political volatility of the past decade. In 2016, voters backed Brexit, rejecting the economic and political status quo. In 2019, many lent their support to Boris Johnson, including in communities that had not voted Conservative in generations again rejecting the old order. In 2024, voters turned to Labour with its promise of change and improvement. And now in Denton, voters have again chosen to send the same signal.
These are not the actions of an irrational electorate. They are the actions of people trying to find a way out of economic stagnation. And unless we rise to the challenge, the electorate will roll the dice again at the next General Election.
After the financial crisis, Britain did not simply suffer a recession. It experienced a deeper shift. The economic model that had supported consistent growth before 2008 stopped delivering at the same pace. Successive governments faced tighter constraints, slower growth, and more difficult trade-offs. The result was a prolonged sense of drift.
Political instability has followed naturally from that economic instability. When governments cannot deliver sustained improvements in living standards, public confidence weakens. Trust declines. Voters become more willing to take risks in search of change.
Labour must recognise the scale of that challenge. It is not enough to govern competently within an economic model that is not producing strong growth. Competence matters, and stability matters, but they must be accompanied by visible economic progress.
Britain needs higher levels of investment than it has seen in recent decades. Public investment in infrastructure, housing, and energy is not a luxury. It is essential if we are to improve productivity and support private sector growth. Many parts of the country have been underinvested in for too long. That has weakened local economies and contributed to the sense that opportunity is unevenly distributed.
State-led investment has played a central role in every period of sustained British economic success. The creation of modern infrastructure, the expansion of housing, and the development of new industries did not happen by accident. They happened because governments chose to act.
That lesson remains relevant today. Investment in transport connections, clean energy, housing supply, and regional economic development can help unlock growth and spread opportunity more widely.
Growth alone, however, is not enough. It must be accompanied by fair distribution. When growth is broadly shared, it strengthens the economy by supporting consumer demand and social stability. When it is narrowly concentrated, it weakens trust and limits its own sustainability.
Labour has an opportunity and a responsibility to respond to this moment. That means focusing on policies that can raise long-term growth and ensure its benefits are widely shared. It means investing in the economic foundations of the country and in the places where people live and work. Above all, it means recognising that economic stagnation is not inevitable. It is the result of choices, and it can be addressed through different choices.
The Denton and Gorton result should be understood in that context. It is not a rejection of Labour’s values. It is a reminder that voters expect progress as well as stability.
Labour exists to improve the material conditions of working people. That requires sustained economic growth, active government, and a commitment to ensuring that prosperity is shared across the country. Delivering that progress is essential not only for electoral success, but for the long-term strength and cohesion of the country itself.
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