Kemi Badenoch has already admitted the local elections will be ‘very difficult’ for the Conservatives
Tory peer and pollster Lord Robert Hayward has predicted a local election wipeout for his own party at the local elections.
Hayward has predicted that under Kemi Badenoch, the Tories will lose between 475 and 525 council seats on 1 May, when 23 local authorities across England will go to the polls.
In addition to the council elections, six mayoral elections will also take place, along with a parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby.
The Tories are defending nearly 1,000 seats, and are only set to win between 375 and 425.
Hayward also expects the Tories to lose control of 16 county councils they currently hold.
Adding to Badenoch’s woes, Robert Jenrick, the Shadow Justice Secretary, said yesterday that the Tories plan to strike a deal with Reform UK to avoid splitting the right-wing vote ahead of the next general election.
His comments directly contradict Badenoch’s, who has ruled out a pact or any deals with Reform UK on a national level.
Hayward’s forecast also flags concerns for Labour. Labour – who are defending around 300 seats – will be left with roughly the same number.
According to Hayward, Labour will not manage to capitalise on the Tories’ collapse, and that they will fail to take seats “they should have won” in the Midlands and the North, leaving the door open to Reform UK.
The poll indicates Reform will win 450 seats in the local elections, most of which will be in these “Red Wall” areas in the Midlands and the North.
The pollster also warned that Labour could lose control of Doncaster to Reform if they have a particularly tough night at the polls.
Labour currently holds 41 of the 55 seats on Doncaster City Council, in addition to the mayoralty.
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
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