With days to go until the mayoral elections, how tight are the races and what should you look out for?

Voters will go to the polls this Thursday 2 May for the 2024 local and mayoral elections, providing the final major test of public opinion ahead of the general election. Nine combined authority mayors across the country along with the Mayor of London will be chosen, with certain results set to shift the narrative for Rishi Sunak. 

Here is a list of the upcoming mayoral elections and, looking at the most recent polling, how the race is predicted to go with the ones to watch out for.

Mayor of Tees Valley

This is set to be an interesting and potentially significant race. The incumbent Tees Valley mayor, Conservative Ben Houchen is hoping to hold onto his seat, with recent YouGov polling putting him just ahead of his Labour rival Chris McEwan.

Current voting intentions are 51% for the Conservative compared to 44% for Labour, with Houchen only ahead by the slimmest margin, which compares to his whopping 73% win in 2021 when he was re-elected after first becoming mayor in 2017. 

It is thought that if the Tory candidates lose in the Tees Valley and West Midlands (see below) then Tory rebels could try oust Sunak, so Westminster is paying close attention here. 

Mayor of the West Midlands

Set to be one of the biggest regional contests along with Tees Valley, Rishi Sunak will be crossing his fingers on Friday in the hope that Andy Street manages to secure a third term as West Midlands mayor. 

YouGov said the race between the Conservative and Labour candidates is currently too close to call, with Street on 41% of votes, and Richard Parker for Labour on 39%. Andy Street has purposefully attempted to distance himself from the Tory Party in an attempt to protect his image from the party’s unpopularity. 

Mayor of the North East

The North East will see another close contest this time between Labour candidate Kim McGuinness and Independent Jamie Driscoll, who are neck-and-neck in the polls.

Driscoll, who was blocked from being Labour’s representative which saw him subsequently quit the party, is the left-wing mayor of North of Tyne who has garnered strong backing from progressives such as the RMT union, journalist Owen Jones and climate campaigners. 

Polling by More in Common puts McGuinness with a 2% lead on Driscoll, as voting intentions for Labour sit at 35% compared to 33% for the Independent candidate. 

Green New Deal Rising said a win for the socialist and environmentalist Driscoll would, “cause a political earthquake – forcing Keir Starmer and the Westminster establishment to change course ahead of the General Election”.

Mayor of Greater Manchester

Andy Burnham the current Labour mayor for Greater Manchester is expected to cruise into a third term with around two-thirds of the vote, with approval ratings that ride higher than most national politicians. 

The latest poll by More in Common put Burnham on 63% of the vote, close to his performance in the 2021 election. What is interesting is that Reform UK’s candidate Dan Barker is polling second on 12% of the vote, with the Tories 3% behind, a marker of the right-wing party’s rise in the area. 

Mayor of East Midlands 

Labour are on course to win in what is the first vote for mayor of the East Midlands. Claire Ward for Labour is on 41% of the vote and Conservative Ben Bradley is on 28%. 

Here Reform UK also looks to nab some previous Tory voters, as More in Common voting intentions show that 24% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 now intend to vote Reform in the East Midlands. 

Mayor of Liverpool City Region 

Incumbent Labour mayor Steve Rotheram, previous MP for Liverpool Walton, is standing for a third term in the Liverpool City Region. There is no current polling on voting intentions here but Rotheram previously received 58% of first-preference votes in 2021, while his 2024 Conservative rival Jade Marsden previously received just 20% of first-preference votes. 

Mayor of York and North Yorkshire

With the first ever mayoral election here the region, which encompasses the Prime Minister’s Richmond constituency, has traditionally been safe Tory territory. But Politico has been told by a Labour staffer that the contest is “neck-and-neck” between Tory candidate Keane Duncan and Labour’s David Saith. 

Politico also highlighted that there was not a single mention or photograph of Sunak on Duncan’s campaign page, a burn for the PM. Labour Shadow Cabinet ministers are in the area today to drum up support for the Labour candidate, as a defeat for the Conservatives here would suggest the party is safe just about nowhere. 

Mayor of South Yorkshire 

Incumbent mayor Oliver Coppard is standing for re-election representing Labour. The Labour Party is the dominant political party in the region with Coppard looking to be re-elected for a second term. 

Mayor of West Yorkshire

The first woman to be elected as a metro mayor in England is seeking re-election in West Yorkshire. Tracy Brabin represents Labour and was first elected in May 2021 on 60% of the vote. In the Labour strong region she looks likely to retain her position. 

Mayor of London 

Vying for a third term as mayor, Labour’s Sadiq Khan has held a lead over Tory rival Susan Hall in the 2024 London mayoral election race so far, however the latest polling shows his lead has narrowed recently. 

 According to Savanta polling Khan holds a 13pt lead, with voting intentions in London putting Khan at 46% with Hall at 33%, with her vote up 5% from polling a week earlier.

The government switched the mayoral voting system to First Past the Post which is an added challenge for Labour, while the personality based premise of mayoral elections marks their difference from national party voting polls.

Hannah Davenport is news reporter at Left Foot Forward

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