It's also been more than two years since the Tories led Labour in the polls
The Tories’ dire poll ratings have have not abated, with Labour consistently leading by 15-20 points. Labour’s lead is far from a flash in the pan, with Keir Starmer’s party having led the Tories in the polls for almost two full years.
Every opinion poll in conducted in the last 703 days has found that more people intend to vote Labour at the next election than intend to vote for the Tories. The last poll where Labour didn’t lead the Tories was conducted between 17–21 March. Then, Labour and the Tories were tied.
The last time the Tories led Labour in a poll was 6 December 2021. That means that it’s been 809 days since the Tories had a lead in the polls – more than 2 years and 2 months.
The state of the polls has led to suggestions that the Tories are heading for wipeout at the next election and Labour are set to win a landslide majority.
According to the political consultancy Electoral Calculus’ latest prediction, Labour are on track to win 467 seats and the Tories will win 99. The New Statesman meanwhile projects that Labour will win 416 seats and the Tories will win 161.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
Image credit: Jessica Taylor / UK Parliament – Creative Commons
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