The next election offers an opportunity for Labour to persuade rural Britain to back them in considerably larger numbers.

Ben Cooper (@BenCooper1995) is a senior researcher at the Fabian Society

By-elections in 2023 have been record-breaking. In July, Selby and Ainsty saw the second largest swing from Conservative to Labour since 1945. This was then surpassed by the swing in Tamworth, last month. On the same day, Mid Bedfordshire saw the largest numerical Conservative majority ever overturned by Labour.

What is surprising isn’t just the scale of the swings, but the fact that they occurred in very rural constituencies. Selby and Ainsty is the fifth most rural constituency in England, while Mid Bedfordshire is the seventh. Even taking the exceptional circumstances of these by-elections into account, Labour winning both suggests something is shifting in rural communities.

Just four years ago, the Conservatives won 53 per cent of rural votes across Great Britain – 33 percentage points ahead of Labour, who received just 20 per cent. Over 80 per cent of rural seats were won by Conservative candidates, compared to just two per cent for Labour. And since most seats have a mix of voters living in rural and non-rural communities, overwhelmingly winning the latter group helped the Conservatives win other seats – even if most voters lived in non-rural communities.

Even before these two by-elections, there were signs that rural voters were turning away from the Conservatives – especially after the Liz Truss’ premiership. Last November, Fabian Society-YouGov polling found the Conservatives were tied with Labour across rural Great Britain on 30 per cent each.

The survey found disconnect between the Conservatives and their rural heartlands. Just 28 per cent of respondents in rural places believed the Conservatives understood people who live in their area, compared to 48 per cent who said they did not. A majority (53 per cent) said the Conservatives did not share their values – compared to 30 per cent who thought they did. No longer can the Conservatives claim to be ‘the party of the countryside’.

Despite their disenchantment with the Conservatives, rural voters are still more reluctant to back Labour than other electorates. Labour’s vote share in rural areas remains lower than in other places. And the party is less likely to be supported by the demographics who make up Labour’s core voters if they live in rural areas. Degree holders, younger voters, and the managers and professionals who back the party overwhelmingly in urban areas, are less likely to do so if they live rurally. This is similar to voters’ aversion to the Conservatives in the ‘Red Wall’ until 2019.

The next election offers an opportunity for Labour to persuade rural Britain to back them in considerably larger numbers. A combination of Liz Truss’s ineptitude and Rishi Sunak’s inaction may prove a catalysing experience for voters at the next election – just as Brexit was for those who went Tory in 2019. But Labour’s current rural support could also evaporate as the election approaches. That’s why Labour needs to grasp this chance to be heard with rural voters sooner rather than later.

There are three things that progressive parties, particularly Labour, should do to win over rural communities – and kick the Conservatives out of vast swathes of their heartlands.

First, appeal to shared values. People value similar things regardless of where they live. Fabian Society polling found that rural communities most value ‘my home’, ‘financial security’, and ‘stability and peace of mind’. These were also most valued by voters living in towns and cities. Progressives should have no difficulty in showing they share these values, rooting national campaigns in things that people in all parts of the country value.

Second, develop a truly ‘one nation’ policy agenda. Rural communities are not isolated from the problems other places face, and share similar policy priorities. When asked, people in rural areas see the economy, health and immigration as the biggest issues facing the country. And they want the next Labour government to ‘improve NHS services, ‘invest in renewable energy such as wind and solar’, and ‘improve social care’ – just as those in towns and cities do. Progressive parties should reflect this shared aspiration, and offer a ‘one nation’ policy agenda to compete with a Conservative ‘divide and rule’ government.

Third, address rural disaffection. Emphasising shared values and developing a ‘one nation’ policy agenda does not mean ignoring the specific challenges that rural areas face. When asked if politicians in Westminster considered their local community when decisions are made about the future of the country, 70 per cent of those living in rural communities said their local area was not prioritised. If Labour can tackle the widespread perception of residents that rural communities are being left behind and ignored, they can gain the support of rural voters in an election.

The recent by-elections are further evidence that the bonds between rural Britain and the Conservatives are being broken. But it is up to Labour to convince rural voters to back them at the next general election. If they appeal to shared values, develop a one nation policy agenda, and address rural disaffection, Labour can build their own connection with rural Britain – and get a Labour government elected, that delivers on their priorities.

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