This would be an unprecedented wipeout

Tory polling woes continue this week. Three new polls have indicated Rishi Sunak’s party are on track to be obliterated at the next general election.

Polling firm Redfield and Wilton has Labour currently sitting on a healthy 18 point lead over the Tories. The company’s latest poll has Labour on 44%, the Tories on 26%, the Lib Dems on 14%, Reform on 6% and the Greens on 6%.

Polling aggregator Stats for Lefties has projected that if this were repeated in a general election, the Tories would be left with just 109 seats. Labour would have a stonking majority, bagging 426 seats.

That would be bad enough for the Tories. But another poll is even more damning. The latest poll from Ipsos gives Labour an even bigger lead of 20 points – with Labour on 44%, the Tories 24%, the Lib Dems 12%, the Greens 8% and Reform 4%.

Projecting what that might look like at the next general election (thanks to Stats for Lefties again) would see the Tories down to double digits of MPs. Labour would end up on 461 seats, with the Tories way behind on 72.

Astonishingly, things can actually get worse. Deltapoll’s latest figures have the Tories trailing behind Labour by a staggering 24 points. The firm has Labour on 47%, the Tories on 23%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 7% and Reform on 6%.

If that were repeated in an election, Labour would win a record breaking majority of 340 seats. Remarkably, the Tories would end up in third place in the House of Commons, behind the Liberal Democrats. Stats for Lefties projects Labour would have 495 seats, the Lib Dems 52 and the Tories 42. This kind of wipeout would be unprecedented in modern British political history.

While polls are simply a snapshot of public opinion at any given time, it would take more than a miracle for the Tories to turn things around in time for the next general election.

Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward

Image credit: Simon Dawson / Number 10 – Creative Commons

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