Six cabinet members are set to be booted out of parliament
A new piece of polling analysis has suggested once again that Labour is on track for a landslide victory at the next election. According to modelling by Stonehaven Global, Keir Starmer’s party is on track to win a stonking majority of 90. That would be bigger than the majority won by Boris Johnson in 2019 or by Tony Blair in 2005.
Stonehaven’s model uses what is called multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP). That’s a complicated term to refer to modelling which uses polling in combination with demographic data to map voting intention polls onto individual constituencies.
The MRP methodology means we have a detailed picture of what it looks like might happen in every single seat at the next general election.
The headline from Stonehaven’s modelling is that Labour are currently on track to win 372 seats at the next election, with the Tories miles behind on 196. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are on track for 36 seats and the SNP are projected to win 25.
The really interesting bits come in the constituency breakdown. This reveals that six of Rishi Sunak’s current cabinet ministers look set to lose their seats – including some of the most important and high profile.
Stonehaven’s model suggests that chancellor of the exchequer Jeremy Hunt would lose his seat to the Lib Dems. Justice secretary Alex Chalk, Tory party chairman Greg Hands, Welsh secretary David TC Davies, chief whip Simon Hart and international development minister Andrew Mitchell are all set to lose their seats – some to the Lib Dems, some to Labour.
This would be the second biggest wipeout of cabinet ministers in an election ever. Only the 1997 Labour landslide would top it, when seven lost their seats.
Stonehaven also projects that Jacob Rees Mogg will lose his seat
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
Image credit: Kirsty O’Connor / HM Treasury
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