Tories set to lose their majority, according to new poll

Notable Tory MPs who could lose their seats include Iain Duncan Smith, Graham Brady, Theresa Villiers, Steve Baker and Ian Levy.

Boris Johnson CBI

The Tories are set to lose their majority in the next general election, with a number of notable Conservative MP set to lose their seats, according to new analysis.

The polling, carried out by political consultancy Electoral Calculus and pollster Find Out Now, was based on over 10,200 respondents, carried out between 29 November and December 1.  The poll found that if a general election were held now, the Tories would fall 38 seats short of a majority.

The Conservatives have a lead over Labour of only 1 percent, which is down from 4 percent from a similar poll for the Telegraph in September, and significantly down from 13pc in May. The poll puts the Tories on 36 percent while Labour are on 35 percent, the Lib Dems on 11 percent. The Greens and SNP are on 8 percent and 5 percent respectively.

Although the Conservatives would still have the highest number of seats with 288, it would mean that they would’ve lost 77 seats while the Labour Party on 271, would’ve gained 68 seats.  The Liberal Democrats would also lose 3 seats, down to 8 from 11 in 2019, while the Greens would still only have 1 seat in Parliament.

The latest analysis comes as support for the Labour Party in the polls has increased throughout November.

The Conservatives are predicted to lose seats particularly in the North West, East Midlands, Wales and Yorks/Humber with Labour as the main beneficiary.

Notable Tory MPs who could lose their seats include Iain Duncan Smith, Graham Brady, Theresa Villiers, Steve Baker and Ian Levy.

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said: “Our latest poll with Find Out Now shows the Conservatives are not doing well with the public. Labour is now about equal in popularity and likely to win nearly as many seats if there were a sudden election. Given the parliamentary arithmetic, it could be more likely for Keir Starmer to be Prime Minister. That’s a big change since Labour’s relatively poor performance at the local elections earlier this year.”

Basit Mahmood is editor of Left Foot Forward

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