The Tories are on track to lose their majority, according to new analysis

"The probability of a Labour-led government is now more likely than not."

Boris Johnson scratching his head

New analysis has suggested that the government is currently on track to lose its majority in a general election. It comes as the government is still reeling in the wake of the Tory sleaze scandal.

The political consultancy Electoral Calculus has released it’s latest ‘poll of polls’ analysis which suggests that if a general election was held now, the Tories would fall 35 seats short of a majority. If this were to happen, the Tories would lose a staggering 74 seats overnight.

Electoral Calculus’ averaging of opinion polls for November puts the Tories on 37.3%, Labour on 37.2%, the Lib Dems on 9.1%, the Greens on 5.9%, the SNP on 4.2%, Plaid Cymru on 0.5% and Reform on 2%.

This new analysis comes as support for the Labour Party in the polls has increased throughout November. Now, Labour is level-pegging with the Tories for the first time in a year.

Despite this, Electoral Calculus project that the Tories would still have more MPs than Labour – with 291 to 269. This is due to Britain’s electoral system and current constituency boundaries favouring the Conservative Party.

The analysis suggests that the Lib Dems would stay on 11 seats. The Greens would still only have Caroline Lucas in parliament, despite their support more than doubling. According to the analysis, the SNP would win all but three of the 59 parliamentary seats in Scotland.

This would mean that a Tory government would be highly unlikely, as the party would be short of a majority, even with the backing of the Democratic Unionist Party and the Liberal Democrats.

A Labour-led government could be achieved, however, with an agreement between Labour and the SNP delivering a small majority in parliament. As Electoral Calculus’ analysis says, “The probability of a Labour-led government is now more likely than not.”

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