The reality of today’s “decisive” Brexit transition deal: seven broken Tory promises

"Brexiters have been prepared to compromise and surrender on almost every single point."

Deputy director of Open Britain, Francis Grove-White, unpicks today’s Brexit ‘transition period’ deal.

Since the referendum, the Government have made at least seven major promises about the Brexit transition period.

Today’s draft agreement with the EU shows these promises have all now been broken, and that all transition does is move us from being a rule maker to a rule taker.

Here are the seven promises the government made and how they’ve now been broken:

1. Promise: a transition period will be about ‘implementing’ the future relationship, not negotiating it

Reality: Today’s agreement shows the bulk of the future relationship will be negotiated after we have left the EU. David Davis said at today’s press conference that the transition will be “the platform upon which we build the new relationship.”

Since the Government clearly needs more time to negotiate the future relationship, it should extend Article 50.

2. Promise: the UK will not pay money to the EU after March 2019

Reality: The Government has conceded the UK will have to pay a divorce bill of around £40bn, with payments continuing until 2064.

And the Prime Minister now says the UK should make “an appropriate financial contribution” for participation in a range of EU agencies.

3. Promise: the UK will not have to abide by EU rules during transition

Reality: The UK will have to abide by all EU rules and regulations including those agreed by members states during transition.

4. Promise: the UK will ‘take back control’ of fisheries policy

Reality: The UK has backed down after the EU made access to UK waters on existing terms throughout the transition period a red line.

5. Promise: “Free movement will end in March 2019”

Reality: Ministers now accept that free movement will continue during transition, with the only difference being the implementation of a new registration scheme which could have been done as an EU member state.

The Prime Minister also quickly backed down over her demand that new arrivals from the EU should not have the same rights as those here already.

6. Promise: the UK will have new trade deals ready to come into force on 29 March 2019

Reality: The UK will not have any new trade deals ready to sign because they cannot even start negotiating them until the UK has left the EU. Even during transition, the UK will not be able to implement any new trade deals.

New trade deals will take many years to negotiate, and we could lose some of the deals we currently enjoy with 65 countries around the world.

7. Promise: the transition period would last for two years and should not be time limited

Reality: The Government has agreed to a fixed transition period of just 21 months. All this does is extend the Brexit cliff-edge until 1 January 2021 – which is no way near enough time to negotiate the future relationship.

Chuka Umunna MP, leading supporter of the Open Britain campaign, said:

 Despite once claiming they held all the cards in the negotiations, in the end the Brexiters have been prepared to compromise and surrender on almost every single point.

 With no clarity on what Britain wants from the negotiations and with the prospect of a cliff-edge merely pushed back a little further, it makes no sense to plunge into the transition period at all.

 Instead the UK should seek to extend the Article 50 negotiating period and aim to agree a comprehensive settlement.

“And if we cannot reach a Brexit deal that is good for Britain and matches the promises that were made in the referendum campaign we should keep all our options open.”

Francis Grove-White is deputy director of Open Britain and tweets here.

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