Andy Burnham beats Reform in first Makerfield by-election poll

The first poll ahead of the Makerfield by-election on 18 June has put the Mayor of Greater Manchester ahead of Reform’s candidate, Robert Kenyon.

The constituency poll carried out by Survation put support for Andy Burnham at 43%, and Kenyon at 40%.

The survey suggests a significant ‘Burnham effect’ in the contest, as on a generic Westminster ballot, with no candidate names attached, Reform UK leads Labour by 11 percentage points. 

While the poll only surveyed 504 people last week, and received 369 responses, the small sample size is not unusual for a constituency-level poll.

In what will be a worrying prospect for Nigel Farage, Rupert Lowe MP’s hard-right party Restore Britain is polling at 7% and looks set to split the right-wing vote.  

The Survation poll put the Liberal Democrats on 4%, while the Green candidate – who has withdrawn since the survey took place – was on 3%. 

Meanwhile, the Conservatives polled at just 2%.

Analysis by journalist and pollster Peter Kellner has suggested the Survation poll may even underestimate support for Burnham.

Kellner argues that because respondents were asked about the likelihood of them voting before the candidates were named, the poll could make support for the Manchester mayor seem lower than it is.

He says that the turnout filter halves the lead because the poll shows that just 74% of Burnham’s supporters say they are certain to vote, compared with Kenyon’s 90%.

Based on Survation’s raw, unweighted sample, not adjusted for turnout or recalled past vote, Kellner notes that support for Burnham rises to 47%, while support for Kenyon drops to 37%.

Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward