"With even Leavers starting to doubt we'll secure a decent Brexit deal, trouble is brewing..."

Voters believe the EU will come out better than the UK in the Brexit negotiations, if and when Theresa May secures a final Brexit deal, according to new BMG Research polling.

The poll conducted by BMG for Left Foot Forward finds that:

• 63% of those with a view believe the European Union will come out better than the UK in the Brexit negotiations
  Only 37% believe the UK will fare better

In polling conducted before David Davis’ transition deal – which ceded crucial ground to the EU on fishing while failing to agree a solution on Northern Ireland – voters are downbeat about the UK’s negotiation prospects.

Leave backers themselves are split on the issue – 39% of Leave voters with a view believe the EU will fare better, with 61% saying the UK will come out on top.

Even 42% of Tory voters think the EU will out-negotiate the UK, while a whopping 74% of Labour voters say the EU will fare better, when don’t knows are excluded.

Older voters more optimistic than younger ones – 45% of those aged 55 or above think the UK will come out on top, compared to 29% of 35-54s.

And voters in Scotland – 77% of those with a view – overwhelmingly expect the European Union to secure a better deal (though the sample is small).

When asked a separate question: ‘To what extent are you optimistic or pessimistic about the outcome of the Brexit negotiations?’, 51% are pessimistic about the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, 24% are optimistic, and 25% are neither optimistic nor pessimistic (excl. don’t knows).

Only 5% are very optimistic – compared to 18% who are very pessimistic.

Surprisingly, 35-54 year olds are more pessimistic than 18-34 year olds – 59% of the former are pessimistic, compared to 47% of 18-34 year olds. Younger voters are more likely to say they don’t know.

Again, Leave voters are divided – with a third pessimistic overall (33%) to 44% optimistic. Just 10% of Remain voters are optimistic (73% are pessimistic).

Left Foot Forward Editor Josiah Mortimer said:

“That nearly two thirds of voters think Michel Barnier’s team will out-negotiate the UK says a lot about how the PM has handled Brexit so far. The Conservatives have come across unprepared and unclear on a whole host of issues, from Northern Ireland to the Customs Union.

“And while Cabinet ministers have been giving grandiose speeches about their ‘visions’ for the negotiations, the EU team have been coming up with actual negotiating documents.

“Though the Prime Minister can count the backing of Conservative voters for now, these are worrying figures for Theresa May – particularly as they come at such a crucial time for the talks.

“With even Leave voters starting to doubt we will secure a decent Brexit deal, trouble is brewing. Voters simply do not believe the UK will come out well from this.

Open Britain’s Deputy Director, Francis Grove-White, said:

“This new polling data confirms what everyone already knows: the government is making a shambolic mess of the Brexit negotiations and the whole country is going to suffer as a result.

“Yesterday’s transition deal saw yet more key Brexit promises broken, further underlining the fact that the Brexit being delivered is not the one that was promised to people during the referendum.

“If the outcome of these negotiations is a bad deal for our country, as looks very likely, then everyone is entitled to keep an open mind about whether Brexit is the right path for the country.”

Eloise Todd, CEO of Best for Britain, said:

“This snapshot is indicative of the anxious public mood, as we watch our government ineptly stumble through the most important negotiations we have ever faced.

“Even Leave voters are split on whether the UK is going to come out on top, hardly a ringing endorsement for the government’s current course.

“As we get ever closer to the government coming back with their Brexit deal offer to the country, it’s time to ask ourselves whether this is all worth it.

“Once the deal is on the table the government should be brave enough to put the power back in the hands of the British people and ask them to decide what’s best for them and their family – Best for Britain believe that we won’t get a better deal than the bespoke one we currently have with the EU.”

The questions asked were: If a final deal is reached between the EU and the UK, which side do you think would come out on the better side of the deal?

And ‘To what extent are you optimistic or pessimistic about the outcome of the Brexit negotiations?’

Source note: BMG interviewed a representative sample of 1,815 adults living in Great Britain between 13th and 16th March. Data are weighted. BMG are members of the British polling council and abide by their rules. Full details here.

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