First general election poll promises vast Conservative majority

Tory support at its highest since May 2008

The Conservatives have surged to their highest polling lead since May 2008 in the first full poll completed since Theresa May announced the general election.

On headline voting intention, 48 per cent of respondents said they would back the Conservatives if an election were held tomorrow, an increase of four percentage points. Just 24 per cent expressed said they would vote Labour.

According to Electoral Calculus, this would give the Conservatives a majority of up to 190 — even larger than Labour’s 1997 landslide.

Theresa May also hit her highest ever personal approval rating in the YouGov/Times poll, with 54 saying she would make the best prime minister. Just 15 per cent said the same of Jeremy Corbyn, while 31 per cent don’t know.

Unsurprisingly, the majority of the public (63 per cent) now expect a Conservative majority. Four per cent overall predict a Labour majority, including just 12 per cent of Labour’s own voters.

See: Campaign gets off to a slow start with stilted PMQs – but Corbyn’s attacks on May hit home

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13 Responses to “First general election poll promises vast Conservative majority”

  1. Fred

    The Labour Party is now the party of communists, Socialist Workers, Class War types, ageing militant trade unionists, university academics, students and young, London-based ‘political bloggers’. Hardly any moderate working people support it.

    Ask yourself this question. Can you really imagine a plumber in Basildon going for a party that quotes Chairman Mao in parliament and calls for IRA terrorists to be given medals? These are the people that decide elections. And the worst thing is that the brand of Labour is now contaminated, so much so that it’s going to take at least a decade to decontaminate it, such that moderates like myself will even consider coming back.

    As an electoral force Labour is finished, for many years.

  2. James Cooper

    Highlight the lies told by Theresa May’s Government & the corrupt media who repeat these lies and make up stories to fuel support for her Government. Also remind people that governments shouldn’t be allowed to operate as a dictatorship. I am constantly annoyed by the term “mandate” when all Governments in my lifetime have had more people vote against them (for other Parties) than for them. They all forget this and constantly avoid true reform that would give all people a true voice.

  3. Joe Martinez

    Didn’t plumbers in Basildon give us Thatcher? For those of you nostalgic for the days of real Tories, starving pensioners, kicking the poor and having an army of police arresting strikers.

  4. Pete jobes

    How the actual fuck?


    where are these Polls being held?..why havent I or anyone I know been invited to take part in these Polls that the torys are supposed to be ahead in? I put it to whoever you are that you are a blatant liar

  6. Carl

    You have hit the nail on the head Fred. The dissonance between metropolitan, remain voting, globally connected Labour and traditional working class, leave voting, grounded in a particular place Labour may be an insurmountable gap. I draw on both positions as a university teacher from a working class background. Some of the identity politics of recent decades has acted as rejection of a set of traditional positions that UKIP has infiltrated.

    It is possible to move forward but the ludicrous egos of most of the parliamentary party and the revivalist fervour of the Corbynistas are roadblocks. We should of organised a grand centre-left coalition of Lib Dem/Green/Labour/ PC/SNP/SDLP/Alliance with the core pledge of both the introduction of PR and the offer of a clear vote at the end of Brexit negotiations. – 30 month time frame – new election. Instead we run the risk of me never getting a Labour Govt again in my lifetime. PR was always the only way to save us from one party hegemony.

  7. Margaret

    How wrong you are! I don’t know where you’ve got your information from, but you obviously don’t get out much, or maybe you live in a selectively isolated wealthy area.
    Whatever your location, perhaps you haven’t had to face the reality of broken Britain where working adults are dependent on food banks, parents skipping meals to feed their children, 100 elderly people in our local hospital have no care package in place to allow them to return home – there are no places in the few remaining nursing homes to free up hospital beds, workers have had their hours cut by one third and many aren’t guaranteed any hours…how do they keep a roof over their heads, pay bills, eat and be available to work every day.
    If none of these issues are apparent to you, then you are one very lucky person, and Theresa May probably works in your favour.
    For the majority of hard working people, the elderly, the children, the sick and disabled, she has let us all down big time!
    The sooner she is gone the better for the desperately underfunded NHS, for the messed up education system which is in crisis, not to mention the Tory election fraud investigations, wealthy tax breaks, corporation tax dodgers, post office shares handed on a plate to the Tory party sponsors of 2015 general election.
    How much more evidence do we need of a failing government, that targets the poorest most vulnerable in society, to line the pockets of the seriously wealthy.
    We need change and we need it now, before more lives are lost to malnutrition and suicide on an even larger scale.

  8. ted francis

    Oh Freddie, how can you rejoice in the prospect of any Government governing totally unopposed?
    An educated guess tells me you are an ardent Leave the EU loop de looper who believes that the Neanderthal Trump is a great President.

  9. Fred

    Margaret, all that may well be true, but it doesn’t win elections.

    If a party scares off middle-of-the-road voters then it cannot win. This has been known for decades. It’s simple maths. Blair understood this, this is why he won in 1997 because he presented a Labour party that was palatable to people in the middle.

    The last time a party won a general election in the UK with a manifesto to the Left of Blair was 1974.
    Think about that.

  10. MarkRD

    YouGov are not to be trusted. Here’s some more info I put together on UK polling companies. ComRes – CEO & Chairman Andrew Hawkins was a lobbyist in Westminster before becoming a Conservative Party advisor during John Major’s ’18-month winter’. Greig Baker, ComRes’ former Research Director was previously a member of the Conservative Shadow Defence and Foreign Affairs research and advisory team. Lionel Zetter, another ComRes director failed to be elected as a Conservative MP. Senior Consultant Aahad Ali once worked for Mary Macleod, former Conservative Member of Parliament for Brentford and Isleworth. For balance, Meghan Oliver, Associate Director, once worked for the Office of Tony Blair Government Advisory Practice…

    YouGov – Stephan Shakespeare, the firm’s CEO as of 2017, once stood as a Conservative candidate for Colchester; he was also a Conservative Party pollster and the founder of He co-founded YouGov with Nadhim Zahawi, the Tory Member of Parliament for Stratford-on-Avon since 2010. Anthony Wells, another director, worked in the Leader of the Opposition’s Office for William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard. Chairman Roger Parry was a Conservative Party policy advisor when Jeremy Hunt was Culture Secretary. Ben Elliot, non-executive director, was appointed Trustee to the Board of the Victoria & Albert Museum by Prime Minister Theresa May in December 2016. I’ve received multiple reports of Labour supporters signing up to YouGov and then never receiving political surveys. I’ve also been told that users are directed to a survey on Jeremy Corbyn as part of filling in their member’s profile.

    ICM – Set up by Nick Sparrow who previously worked as a private pollster to the Conservative Party Central Office.

    Survation – Responsible for The Sun’s recent front page survey claiming that 1 in 5 Muslims sympathise with jihadi fighters. Chiefly known for their monthly voter-intention polls on behalf of the Mail on Sunday and its work for Sky News. Director Paul Smith was Senior Campaign Consultant on Sadiq Khan for London campaign, a strategist for their 2010 election campaign and a Trade Union Co-ordinator for Ed Miliband. Former Research Director Patrick Briône was a Research Consultant for the LibDem thinktank CentreForum. The only company to claim they correctly predicted the last election result but CEO Damian Lyons Lowe suppressed the findings.

    Populus – The Times pollster, therefore News UK’s pollster. Therefore News Corp’s. Lord Cooper of Windrush, the director and founder is a Tory peer and former Conservative Party Director of Strategy. Rick Nye, Populus strategy director is a former director of the Conservative Research Department. Both co-founder Michael Simmonds and Associate Director Daisy Powell-Chandler previously worked for the Conservative Party, Simmonds as Director of Membership & Marketing, Powell-Chandler as Professional Director. Powell-Chandler was also Research Director for the Thatcherite think tank Centre For Policy Studies.

  11. Doug1943

    At last we will have a real choice!

    For decades there have just been the real Tories, and Tory-lights. Now we have a true socialist at the head of a true socialist party. The millions of people mentioned by Margaret above, who hate the capitalist system but have not been able to vote against it, will now have the chance to do so.

    Of course there will be enormous pressure on Corbyn and his backers to water down their message, to hide their true politics … — I notice that already Corbyn’s website has removed his praise for Hugo Chavez’s socialist Venezuela, where in fact he should be proudly running as the British Chavez — but if they will stick to their principles, and promise deep-seated radical change, by whatever means necessary, a frontal assault on the whole capitalist system, the transfer of wealth from those who have it to those who don’t, then the results of the election will astonish us all.

  12. Michael WALKER

    Nice to see we have input form people who think that running a country with no medicines, restricted food and shortages of every thing – as in Venezuela – is something to be applauded..(Doug1943)
    I take it Doug lives in an alternate existence or does not read the news about Venezuela.

    And MarkRD does not believe Opinion Polls.
    I take it he has done his own polling of thousand of representative voters and weighted them for various factors and has oodles of data which he’ll no doubt share with us to prove the pollsters are wrong.

    Oh : he has not.. SO another fantasist then.

    Labour are adopting the policies and appearance of a cult with supporters like this. Fortunately for the country, they help the Tories by turning off voters as their claims are so extreme and they have no facts to back up their claims.

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