New polls find majority for Brexit, with 52 per cent to Remain’s 48 per cent

Movement Politics

ICM finds four-point lead for Brexit when 'don't knows' are excluded

 

Two polls by ICM for the Guardian have found votes to leave the EU ahead by four percentage points.

When asked by telephone, 45 per cent said they would vote to leave the European Union, against 42 voting to remain, with 13 per cent ‘don’t knows’.

ICM removed the ‘don’t knows’ to reach 52 per cent for Brexit and 48 per cent for staying in the EU.

An online poll by ICM found 47 per cent for leaving and 44 per cent for remain, with 9 per cent undecided.

When the undecided were excluded, the same result of 52 to 48 was reached.

The results were at odds with most polling which has so far found a comfortable lead for a Remain majority.

Martin Boon, ICM director, told the Guardian: ‘Our poll rather unhinges a few accepted orthodoxies.’

The polls also suggested a high turnout in the June 23 referendum, with 60 per cent saying they intended to vote.

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2 Responses to “New polls find majority for Brexit, with 52 per cent to Remain’s 48 per cent”

  1. Martyn Wood-Bevan

    I imagine that the majority of “don’t knows” will vote remain. Most Brexiteers seem violently pro-leave, and the “don’t knows” are likely to choose the safer option. Same as with the General Election in 2015 and the Scottish Referendum in 2014. I predict a 55/45 remain victory.

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