“The Conservatives can replace Labour as the main opposition party at Holyrood.”
That was the assessment of the Secretary of State for Scotland and the Conservative’s only MP north of the border, David Mundell, over the weekend.
He was speaking after a new poll indicated that the Conservatives might just have begun squeezing Labour into third place.
According to the sub-data compiled by ComRes’s poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror, of those in Scotland saying they are likely to vote, asked how they would vote if there were a General Election tomorrow, 18% said Conservative, ahead of the 13% who said Labour.
At this stage, important caveats need to be added. This is just one poll, and a small sub set of a UK wide poll at that. Moreover, asking how voters would cast their votes in a UK General Election does not necessary give huge clues as to how they would vote in elections to Holyrood.
That said, the findings do fit with a pattern that has seen the gap between Scottish Labour and Conservatives narrowing considerably.
The findings come at the end of a year in which the Conservative leader at Holyrood, Ruth Davidson, has been judged to have performed well.
Feisty, young and energetic, she is a good communicator who has never been afraid to confront the UK wide party.
In October she dubbed the Chancellor’s changes to tax credits as simply “not acceptable” whilst in June she used an interview with the Guardian to declare that she was “a fully paid-up member of the ‘votes at 16’ club” following the experience of giving them and 17 year olds the vote in the independent referendum.
Speaking on BBC Fivelive’s Pienaar’s Politics’ programme yesterday, Scottish Secretary, David Mundell said of the state of the Conservatives in Scotland:
“There are strong signs now, I think, of a resurgence under Ruth Davidson’s leadership.
“She’s a dynamic young woman who has brought a real buzz to Scottish politics and is clearly the only person in the Scottish Parliament who is able to go toe-to-toe with Nicola Sturgeon and hold her to account.”
At the start of last week it was reported that the Scottish Conservative Party had decided to get rid of half of its candidates for next May’s elections to the Scottish Parliament to favour younger more moderate candidates able to appeal to voters from the centre ground.
According to reports in the Financial Times, Ms Davidson’s focus is on capitalising on Labour’s turmoil under Jeremy Corbyn, appealing to the 2 million unionist voters who opposed independence in last year’s referendum.
By the end of last week the party had confirmed those on the regional list section of the ballot papers for next May. This section of the vote is likely to prove crucial in determining how well the Conservatives do.
The growing optimism among Scottish Conservatives stands in contrast to the sense of gloom that continues to surround Scottish Labour. With Jeremy Corbyn providing no real bounce in the party’s fortunes north of the border, a number of polls have been predicting the party could end up with no constituency MSPs at all from next May.
Little wonder therefore that Scottish Labour now seems to be struggling to find enough people to stand in constituency seats.
20 Responses to “Could Conservatives overtake Labour in Scotland?”
Cole
A lot of the same people are around as in the 1980s – Corbyn, Livingstone etc. Theyre up to their old Bennite tricks – and making the party unelectable once again . The Tories are delighted.
andagain
The majority of people in this country are NOT grassroots party activists. Remember this poll:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/voters-want-next-labour-leader-to-be-like-tony-blair-poll-shows-10328384.html
“An exclusive Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard finds that even Labour supporters are more likely to name Mr Blair than any other past Labour leader as the best role model.”
Thanks Tank
It is time that Scottish Labout and the Scottish Tories merged in to one party.
She is better than anything Labour have had for years but there is still no real drive or passion and that shows.
Thanks Tank
He’ll still be just another London focused politician who has no time for Scotland.
The Tories or Labour don’t even care about England north of Birmingham so why would the Scots care?
uglyfatbloke
If the Scottish tories had a bit of sense and courage (and fortunately they don’t) there would be a real risk of them coming second at Holyrood. If they took a firm stand on the restitution of maritime jurisdiction to what it was before Blair changed it and if they campaigned for the abolition of the supreme court on the grounds that both things are contrary to the spirit if not the letter of the Treaty of Union they could portray themselves as defenders of that Union, which would play well. They may not be doorstep issues but there is definitely an opportunity there. If they also adopted a platform of proper PR for all Scottish elections that would play well too – and, if put into place, would have the added advantage of making it very, very difficult for the gnats to get a majority in the future. If they were brave they might also pursue free school dinners for all primary schools (at least) and a medical-use arrangement for cannabis. Each of these things would effectively put the gnats – and everyone else – on the wrong side of the argument and on the wrong side of the public. Alternatively, Kezia could take these issues into the election and save a lot of Labour seats – and I’m not sure that she would face any objections from JC – though the less sensible part of the Blair/Brown forces within the Party might make trouble for her.