“The Conservatives can replace Labour as the main opposition party at Holyrood.”
That was the assessment of the Secretary of State for Scotland and the Conservative’s only MP north of the border, David Mundell, over the weekend.
He was speaking after a new poll indicated that the Conservatives might just have begun squeezing Labour into third place.
According to the sub-data compiled by ComRes’s poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror, of those in Scotland saying they are likely to vote, asked how they would vote if there were a General Election tomorrow, 18% said Conservative, ahead of the 13% who said Labour.
At this stage, important caveats need to be added. This is just one poll, and a small sub set of a UK wide poll at that. Moreover, asking how voters would cast their votes in a UK General Election does not necessary give huge clues as to how they would vote in elections to Holyrood.
That said, the findings do fit with a pattern that has seen the gap between Scottish Labour and Conservatives narrowing considerably.
The findings come at the end of a year in which the Conservative leader at Holyrood, Ruth Davidson, has been judged to have performed well.
Feisty, young and energetic, she is a good communicator who has never been afraid to confront the UK wide party.
In October she dubbed the Chancellor’s changes to tax credits as simply “not acceptable” whilst in June she used an interview with the Guardian to declare that she was “a fully paid-up member of the ‘votes at 16’ club” following the experience of giving them and 17 year olds the vote in the independent referendum.
Speaking on BBC Fivelive’s Pienaar’s Politics’ programme yesterday, Scottish Secretary, David Mundell said of the state of the Conservatives in Scotland:
“There are strong signs now, I think, of a resurgence under Ruth Davidson’s leadership.
“She’s a dynamic young woman who has brought a real buzz to Scottish politics and is clearly the only person in the Scottish Parliament who is able to go toe-to-toe with Nicola Sturgeon and hold her to account.”
At the start of last week it was reported that the Scottish Conservative Party had decided to get rid of half of its candidates for next May’s elections to the Scottish Parliament to favour younger more moderate candidates able to appeal to voters from the centre ground.
According to reports in the Financial Times, Ms Davidson’s focus is on capitalising on Labour’s turmoil under Jeremy Corbyn, appealing to the 2 million unionist voters who opposed independence in last year’s referendum.
By the end of last week the party had confirmed those on the regional list section of the ballot papers for next May. This section of the vote is likely to prove crucial in determining how well the Conservatives do.
The growing optimism among Scottish Conservatives stands in contrast to the sense of gloom that continues to surround Scottish Labour. With Jeremy Corbyn providing no real bounce in the party’s fortunes north of the border, a number of polls have been predicting the party could end up with no constituency MSPs at all from next May.
Little wonder therefore that Scottish Labour now seems to be struggling to find enough people to stand in constituency seats.
20 Responses to “Could Conservatives overtake Labour in Scotland?”
Ken Bell
Ruthie is a list MSP for the Glasgow region, and I am curious to know how come she felt the need to scamper across the country to fight the next Scottish General Election on the Lothian list if her party was doing so well?
The fact is that they are not doing all that well, and quoting sub-sets of national polls is not evidence to the contrary. The Tories have three constituency seats which they are set to lose, and 12 list members, some of which are also likely to go. They may gain a few seats in South Scotland to compensate, but nothing I have seen with any Scottish poll shows them actually emerging after the next SGE with more than a dozen or so Holyrood seats.
deadtrax
He’s been in the job TWO MONTHS and your lot have been running things for decades. Lets lay the blame squarely at the people who fucked it up, shall we?
Malc Cowle
It is not Michael Foot all over again. This is 2015 and it is Blair and his cronies who are now held in contempt by working people, both young and old. Get used to the fact and start doing some serious research at grass-roots level where the majority of us live.
Cole
We had lots of nonsense from Corbynistas saying how well JC would do in Scotland. It’s clearly not true. He’s incredibly unpopular across the UK and clearly a disaster for the party.
Our lot, generally known as the Labour Party, actually won three elections and ran the country for 13 years. But you probably think it was all a waste of time and that everyone involved was a Tory or even a fascist.
Cole
There’s no evidence that Corbyn is popular with the grassroots – unless you are talking about the 1% who are Labour members.