Maintaining the pretence that the government is able to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands is dishonest
The Spending Review and vote on Syria have blown the quarterly migration statistics off the front pages of most media outlets.
But it is inevitable that later today, the migration statistics will be spun and sensationalised in the press, used as evidence that the government’s policy is failing and that the numbers of people coming to the UK is increasing. But scrutiny of the statistics tells a more interesting story.
The Conservatives went into the 2010 election with the pledge to reduce net migration – immigration minus emigration – to the tens of thousands by 2015 election. It failed on this aim – spectacularly – but the government has continued to keep the pledge as a policy objective.
Today’s statistics show that an estimated 636,000 people migrated to the UK in the 12 months to June 2015, while 300,000 people left, leaving a net inflow of 336,000, the same level as in March 2015, but some 236,000 people above the government’s net migration target.
But a deeper delve into the statistics tells a different story. Migration from the EU has fallen, including migration from the EU’s newest member states (73,000 migrant in the year to June 2015, compared with 81,000 in the year to March 2015).
Levels of non-EU migration are also lower than they were at the beginning of the last parliament and under Labour, although a little higher than at the same time last year.
Home Office administrative statistics also released today confirms these trends. The numbers of student visas issued has fallen by 5.9 per cent in the quarter to September 2015, compared with the previous year, while the number of family and work visas issued has remained constant.
What has changed is that fewer migrants are leaving the UK – just 300,000 people left the UK as emigrants in the year to June 2015, compared with 321,000 in the year to June 2014. Levels of emigration are at a record low. This means that even if immigration falls, net migration will remain high because fewer people are leaving.
This fact highlights the nonsensical nature of the government’s net migration target. Some 13.4 per cent of immigrants in coming to the UK were returning UK nationals and a further 41.7 per cent were other EU nationals, two groups whose entry the government has little ability to control. Net migration targets have been further derailed by fewer migrants leaving.
Maintaining the pretence that the government is able to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands is dishonest. It reduces public trust in the ability of politicians to manage migration. At a time when there is a growing exodus of migrants crossing the Mediterranean, it is essential that politicians are open and candid about what they can and cannot do.
Abandoning the net migration target would be the most truthful option. We need an open and evidenced debate, not lies and deceit.
Jill Rutter is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward
28 Responses to “Comment: The government must start telling the truth about migration”
damon
”The UK has only covered 13 % of it’s land in buildings.”
That argument is so rubbish. Do you think if the figure was 50% it would still be OK because we’d still have 50% that was not built on?
And it’s not just the built on land that is blighted. Do you consider the fields that run alongside motorways and main roads to be unaffected? Or the bits of green between towns that have busy roads running through them. South East England is majority green fields, but it is already a busy congested place.
And who said that I didn’t want any immigration? I certainly didn’t.
What I said is that I don’t like the idea of a Britain with a much larger population. Its alreay grown hugely since the end of WW2. It used to be about 55 million.
One reason I like Ireland is because there is space there.
The motorways aren’t so full to bursting that one incident causes gridlock, like happens on the M25 every bloody time I go on it.
Do you propose that we just keep adding lanes, or that we build another one around it?
You could argue there is lots of building land to the south west of London where the M3 runs. But put twenty thousand houses on it and where is the traffic going to go? On to the M3 and M25 and other congested roads of the area. You can’t just build your way out of everything.
Helen Oyintando Ilitha
Scotland has a shrinking population. It needs more immigrants, or at the very least more people from other parts of the UK to move there. How could this be achieved, which would reduce the strain on other areas?
Gerwynimo
50% of Cancer Radiologists are from continental Europe. We have a shortage of builders, nurses, doctors and such-like. Until the government is serious about training and skilling people already in the UK then we will still be over-reliant on the need to import labour. I am glad that we import so many people, but not happy that the govt. has such a downer on the public sector.