The reverse seems to be the case
As the SNP begins its annual conference in Aberdeen today, it will do so in the knowledge that there has been no discernible ‘Corbyn bounce’ north of the border.
According to new polling out today, Labour’s standing in Scotland has actually fallen, with 21 per cent of those stating a voting preference supporting Labour in the constituency vote for the Scottish Parliament. This is down from 22 per cent the last time YouGov conducted such polling in September.
The SNP remain steady on 51 per cent, 30 percentage points ahead of Labour. The Conservatives are on 19 per cent (up one point), the Lib Dems are on 5 per cent (up from 4 per cent in September). Other parties stand on 4 per cent.
Asked how they would vote on the regional list section of next year’s elections to Holyrood, 45 per cent said the SNP, 20 per cent said Labour and 19 per cent said the Conservatives. The Lib Dems are on 5 per cent and the Greens on 6 per cent.
With Nicola Sturgeon now determined not to push for a second independence referendum imminently, excluding those who did not know or would not say, 48 per cent of those polled supported independence compared to 52 per cent who opposed it.
Today’s results should make Labour HQ sit up and pay attention. The expectation had been that Jeremy Corbyn would somehow revive Labour’s fortunes, yet the reverse seems to be the case, with this poll matching the findings of the data published by TNS last week.
In a difficult assessment for Labour, editor-in-chief of YouGov Freddie Sayers notes:
“The reality is that the appeal of the SNP in Scotland is much broader than simply anti-austerity. It is a nationalist party, currently buoyed by an atmosphere of successful rebellion against the UK establishment.
“In the eyes of Scottish voters, Mr Corbyn is still a remote Westminster figure, at the head of a party that has lost its covenant with Scottish voters. Today’s figures reveal the extent of the challenge ahead of him if he hopes to get a message through that will make a difference north of the border. Whatever that message is, it hasn’t been heard yet.”
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor at Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter
28 Responses to “Second poll shows no Corbyn bounce in Scotland”
Richard MacKinnon
Dave, Let me reassure you, the SNP will never share a platform with the Tories. Rocks will melt in the sun before that happens. On your other point about arrogance; you can afford to be arrogant if you are a winner. Its not a nice trait but some politicos cant help themselves. If however you are arrogant and end up a loser like Jim Murphy then you look foolish and people will laugh at you. Murphy was full of himself when he took over as Labours Scottish leader. He was going to sort out the SNP. Labour we were told they had a leader in Jim that was a hard hitter and for the first time in Scotland the SNP were on the run. But within 6 months of taking on the job he lost his Westminster seat. He was going to become an MSP at next years Holyrood elections but he is now so toxic he has no chance of standing in next years Scottish elections. Even within the remnants of Scottish Labour he is a joke figure. He might have a nice pension but because he has never done any other kind of job apart from politics he now finds himself in the position of being uniquely unqualified to do anything.
LisaR
I was many years Labour and a unionist, taking my head out of sand and reading many facts along with the behaviour of Scottish Labour during the campaign only had me look closely at SNP, Scottish and HQ Labour have always conditioned us to believe SNP are the enemy of Scotland, maybe in the early days of SNP decades ago it may have been seen that way for us leftwing socialists but even when it was clear that SNP were more socialist and having proved themselves to protect our interests, grow our economy and create jobs, even when Westminster were slashing our block grant year in year out. Scottish Labour and Scottish Labour MPs stopped doing anything for Scotland, they relied on just conditioning us that SNP were back and they were good, our fault for never looking further than what they instilled in us and also their newpaper Daily Record that would lie and distort facts about SNP. Once we seen the true worth of SNP and probably the cleanest party around, after all for about 4 years the BetterTogether camp sniffed around them looking for dirt and never came up with anything. Even now with Michelle Thomson, she isn’t even being investigated yet if at all and she has stepped down for now as SNP MP till she clears her name of being wrongly accused. My ex MP Gordon Brown conned his fellow Scots,he should have known better that Tories don’t keep promises so he has no respect from majority of ex Labour voters and for many of us as much hated as Tony Blair. I was glad though that Jeremy Corbyn was being supported by many awake English folk, that they too like us Scots had taken heads out of sand and were standing up for democracy. I’m very disgusted in many of the rightwing MPs in the party who just don’t seem to get it, the more they attack and try and demean Jeremy, the more the people will stand by him and if they did succeed in a coup then they must be really stupid to think the people of the south would still stand by the Labour party. Its good to see Momentum movement on the go because that is what won us the part of our choice and as seen in the SNP Conference, delegates will pass resolutions they believe is right but in the likes of the land reform bill, the delegates voted against the bill and sent the party to do more for land reform, that is our democracy speaking and I see it will happen in the south too. Whatever the outcome, I hope Jeremy will not allow the rightwing MPs to change him from the very principles he stood by like being anti war, anti Trident, anti Fracking etc. If he does change then he does not deserve all the people’s support. We are opposition of the Tories, these Labour MPs that want to spite SNP by abstaining on bills they are for against to get at SNP,only allow Tories put through bills that are detrimental to the people and anger Scots more against Labour’s childish behaviour. We can be a strong opposition so I think its time these MPs grow up and stand up against Tories and stop seeing SNP more as the enemy than the Tories.
Derick Tulloch
That is my experience also. People in the South have no idea how much Labour is hated in Scotland. Phoning up pensioners last year to tell them lies that they would lose their pensions if there was a Yes vote is simply unforgivable.
I could see them falling below the Tories next May. And I say this as a former member of the Labour Party. The slight increase in Tory polling is a straight shift of the right wing unionist end of the Labour vote directly to the Tories in response to Jeremy’s election.