There is widespread support for another referendum; now Labour must persuade the electorate that May is not a proxy vote for independence
Scottish Labour faces a double bombshell this morning, with new polling not only suggesting near wipe-out for the party in May, but showing that a majority of people now support independence.
The data, collected by Survation for the Labour-supporting Daily Record newspaper, has found that with undecideds and won’t says taken out, 51 per cent of people in Scotland would vote for independence compared to 49 per cent who would reject such a proposition. This is the first poll to put independence in the lead since September’s referendum.
More worryingly still for the pro-union parties, 60 per cent of respondents expressed support for another referendum being held within the next 10 years, despite declarations in September that the last vote had settled the issue ‘for a generation’.
Meanwhile, in the week that Ed Miliband ruled out any coalition agreement with the SNP following the election, today’s poll puts the SNP on 47 per cent, up two percentage points from Survation’s poll last month. Labour are on 26 per cent (-1), the Conservatives are up one point to 16 per cent, and the Lib Dems are on four per cent (down one point) with no changes on the seven per cent of voters who plan to vote for another party.
According to the calculations, if replicated across the country, the SNP would secure 53 of Scotland’s 59 seats with Labour slumped to just five MPs north of the border and the Lib Dems losing all but one of its seats.
Seeking to move attention away from independence and towards the General Election, Scottish Labour’s lead Jim Murphy has once again responded to this poll by telling voters that a vote for any party but Labour will lead to a Conservative government. He concludes:
“There is only one party across the UK that is big enough to stop the Tories being the largest party and that’s Labour.
“Now that it’s 100 per cent certain that there won’t be a Labour and SNP coalition there’s only one way to beat the Tories.
“A vote for anyone other than Scottish Labour risks the Tories being the biggest party and David Cameron returning to Downing Street by accident.
“That would be a terrible outcome for Scotland but it’s what could happen if this poll is repeated on election day.”
Unsurprisingly, the SNP have welcomed the results. The party’s leader at Westminster Angus Robertson has concluded it ‘shows that support to give Scotland a strong voice at Westminster by returning a team of SNP MPs to stand up for Scottish interests remains very high’. He continued:
“By contrast, Labour continue to pay the price for being on the same side of so many arguments as the Tories, including their joint commitment to imposing even more spending cuts.
“We take nothing for granted and will work extremely hard to win people’s trust on May 7 so that we can deliver jobs and growth in place of Westminster cuts, power for Scotland and the non-renewal of useless and expensive Trident nuclear weapons.”
Speaking exclusively to Left Foot Forward, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University has noted that for Labour to gain a recovery would require three things:
- Showing to voters in Scotland that Westminster is relevant to their lives;
- Persuading voters that May is not a proxy vote for or against independence; and
- Gaining traction for its vision for a fairer society to counteract Nicola Sturgeon’s campaigning efforts in this direction.
Whether or not this can all be achieved between now and polling day remains to be seen.
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on TwitterA
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127 Responses to “A double bombshell for Scottish Labour”
Guest
Oh right, nutters like the British don’t hate democracy. As you have to have all kinds of disorders in your world to be British.
My ancestors were not in the UK, even, when the Empire was being built…what nonsense you spout, as you ramble on about caring about what Westminster wants as and when it suits you.
You’re ignoring plenty of examples which works, as you claim it’s a FACT that borders and restrictions will happen, regardless of what people want, that my nation musrt be destroyed and your kind of hate enshrined.
So, after purging all the non-true blooded Scots out of Scotland, what will your next trick be? Arming one side in the war you want in Northern Ireland?
Leon Wolfeson
Exactly. The problem is FPTP and the lack of real choice.
stelsewhere
lol .. you’ve just proved all my points for me .. your indoctrinated little mind can’t let go even when common sense comes into play .. Germany and France and Italy etc etc etc all have open borders .. ffs .. EVEN IRELAND AND NORTHERN IRELAND has open borders .. Scotland has a much stronger identity as its lineage hasn’t been watered down as much as England.. Do the red indians or aborignes or mongolians just sit down and accept another nation ruling over them?! .. England is all about EMPIRE and its death throw squealing as it finally dies can be heard all over the world .. rule brittania nutters just can’t accept the inevitable ! .. typical Unionist .. we’ll close the border , we’ll nuke you, we will we will we will ..”i’m telling my mummy on you”.. seriously stupid people!
Guest
So, you’re saying that my refusal to hate myself proves your PC bigotry.
As you try and ignore the fact that Scotland would be out the EU at first, and if it joined, it would have to join Schengen. Meaning an external schengen border with the UK.
You lash out, talking about your narrow-minded nationalism – as you talk about groups which do in fact live in other nations, as you talk about killing the British, murdering people in a spasm of violence – as you, stupid person, call for nuking and closing the border.
You did, it’s you, you’re a closed-minded anti-democratic fanatic and quite likely from your post terrorist.
stelsewhere
WOW! .. “media conspiracy” .. are you saying there isn’t one?? lol .. the National border will be their in name only the same way as it is now .. England can’t afford to to lose the foodstuffs , energy, timber etc etc etc that Scotland has for sale .. for England to source these items from Europe etc will see the price treble.. FACT! .as a long distance hgv driver , i’m in England 5 days a week , EVERY WEEK delivering these items . BUT i struggle to get return loads which means IT IS ALL ONE WAY!! .. .. AND .. YES THE BRITISH EMPIRE WAS /IS EVIL .. probably the most EVIL empire in history (and that includes Ghengis Khan !.