Labour would be forgiven for reaching for the paracetamol this morning.
Labour would be forgiven for reaching for the paracetamol this morning
The Labour Party is facing a further headache following new polling that has revealed that the SNP are now ahead of the party in voting intentions for both Holyrood and Westminster.
According to new data collected by Survation and commissioned by the SNP, asked how they would vote in the constituency vote for the Scottish Parliament, when the undecided are taken out, the SNP now lead Labour by 15 per cent, with the nationalists on 42 per cent (down 3 per cent on the 2011 election results) whilst Labour are on 27 per cent (down 5 per cent).
On the regional list vote, again, the SNP lead Labour with the Scots Nats on 37 per cent (-7 per cent), and Labour on 27 per cent (+1 per cent).
Labour will however be most concerned about the figures on voting intentions for Westminster where the SNP now lead Labour on 34 per cent (+14 per cent from 2010) whilst Labour are on 32 per cent (-10 per cent). This represents a 12 per cent swing from the SNP to Labour which George Eaton in the New Statesman has argued would be “deadly” for Ed Miliband if it were to be reflected in the election next year.
Interestingly, on Westminster voting intentions, the Conservatives north of the border, according to the poll, now stand on 18 per cent, up 1 per cent from 2010, a reflection of the good campaign that Ruth Davidson is widely believed to have had during the independence referendum as leader of the Scottish Conservatives.
It could be that this is a rogue poll, but none the less, a combination of the SNP’s membership trebling since the independence referendum and the boost the party will undoubtedly get with Nicola Sturgeon taking the leadership in November now makes it look highly likely that the nationalists will successfully take some seats from Labour next May on the mantra of holding the UK parties ‘feet to the fire’ when it comes to further powers being devolved to Holyrood.
Given Labour’s continued reliance on its rump of Scottish Labour MPs, such news will have many at Labour HQ worried about the rapid erosion in its once heartland seats.
This is compounded by a similar pattern emerging in Wales where Roger Scully, Professor of Political Science in the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, has noted that Welsh Labour has seen a considerable decline in support over the past 18-24 months. As he has explained:
“In the four polls conducted in 2012, Labour’s general election vote share was always at or above 50 per cent. Both the last two have had it below 40 per cent.”
The polling comes following what was widely believed to have been a lacklustre performance from Ed Miliband in his speech to the party conference last week with the icing on the difficult to swallow cake being today’s YouGov poll putting the Conservatives ahead of Labour on UK wide voting intentions.
And for information, YouGov have also revealed that more people would want to go for a drink with Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Theresa May than Ed Miliband.
Labour would be forgiven for wanting to grab for the paracetamol this morning.
81 Responses to “Labour’s headaches get worse”
sarntcrip
U- KIP IF YOU WANT TO THE REST OF US ARE WIDEAWAKE TO YOUR AGENDA OF DIVISION
franwhi
Why should Ed get to win anyway ? His Scottish mps consistently put party before the people of Sotland. He only deserves to win if he can engage the English electorate and let us Scots get on with running our own govt. I haven’t voted Labour for years but even my fellow Scots who do are dismayed by Labour’s conduct in the referendum. Are they wrong or have Labour scored a huge own goal ?
RolftheGanger
The “promising” was done by teh Broon job – remember?
Expendable as an out of power backbench Labour Toy muppet.
Now it is “Broon – who he?”
Thomtids
My response in the case of dear Clement was expressed in the past tense! The only Liberal politician who was remotely human and/or credible. Unlike the vast majority of them who are all monumentally disgusting, duplicitous or dishonest.
Thomtids
The situation with Ed is that Labour reckoned they were out of power for at least two administrations and so were “relaxed” when Harvard boy skewered his brother, to the delight of McLusky and the Union vote. Ed was “‘armless”. Weak, pliant, easy-going, self-aware that he would, in the final years be replaced by the “real” candidate in time for the “proper” vote.
Only the Conservatives have been so bloody incompetent, unelectable and downright duplicitous, that they are not going to win a majority. Well, they didn’t the last time so they have no chance this time. The LimpDumps are knackered. UKIP is a dark horse…..
Remember Foinaven……