Labour would be forgiven for reaching for the paracetamol this morning.
Labour would be forgiven for reaching for the paracetamol this morning
The Labour Party is facing a further headache following new polling that has revealed that the SNP are now ahead of the party in voting intentions for both Holyrood and Westminster.
According to new data collected by Survation and commissioned by the SNP, asked how they would vote in the constituency vote for the Scottish Parliament, when the undecided are taken out, the SNP now lead Labour by 15 per cent, with the nationalists on 42 per cent (down 3 per cent on the 2011 election results) whilst Labour are on 27 per cent (down 5 per cent).
On the regional list vote, again, the SNP lead Labour with the Scots Nats on 37 per cent (-7 per cent), and Labour on 27 per cent (+1 per cent).
Labour will however be most concerned about the figures on voting intentions for Westminster where the SNP now lead Labour on 34 per cent (+14 per cent from 2010) whilst Labour are on 32 per cent (-10 per cent). This represents a 12 per cent swing from the SNP to Labour which George Eaton in the New Statesman has argued would be “deadly” for Ed Miliband if it were to be reflected in the election next year.
Interestingly, on Westminster voting intentions, the Conservatives north of the border, according to the poll, now stand on 18 per cent, up 1 per cent from 2010, a reflection of the good campaign that Ruth Davidson is widely believed to have had during the independence referendum as leader of the Scottish Conservatives.
It could be that this is a rogue poll, but none the less, a combination of the SNP’s membership trebling since the independence referendum and the boost the party will undoubtedly get with Nicola Sturgeon taking the leadership in November now makes it look highly likely that the nationalists will successfully take some seats from Labour next May on the mantra of holding the UK parties ‘feet to the fire’ when it comes to further powers being devolved to Holyrood.
Given Labour’s continued reliance on its rump of Scottish Labour MPs, such news will have many at Labour HQ worried about the rapid erosion in its once heartland seats.
This is compounded by a similar pattern emerging in Wales where Roger Scully, Professor of Political Science in the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, has noted that Welsh Labour has seen a considerable decline in support over the past 18-24 months. As he has explained:
“In the four polls conducted in 2012, Labour’s general election vote share was always at or above 50 per cent. Both the last two have had it below 40 per cent.”
The polling comes following what was widely believed to have been a lacklustre performance from Ed Miliband in his speech to the party conference last week with the icing on the difficult to swallow cake being today’s YouGov poll putting the Conservatives ahead of Labour on UK wide voting intentions.
And for information, YouGov have also revealed that more people would want to go for a drink with Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Theresa May than Ed Miliband.
Labour would be forgiven for wanting to grab for the paracetamol this morning.
81 Responses to “Labour’s headaches get worse”
Mukkinese
I notice many Tory central trolls make this place their home.
Are they really so stupid as to think their propaganda will be swallowed by any other than the other Tory drones and forelock-tuggers?
Thomtids
Look, Mukinese….do you consider the chaos, mayhem and manslaughter at Mid Staffs hospital is a glowing testimonial for the NHS under Labour? Or is that your idea of how a system that causes the premature deaths of thousands of normal people is just what we need….euthanasia free at the point of need.
Thomtids
Labour are not going to secure a clear win. They have not obtained absolution for the financial meltdown in 2008′ yet. The main architects of that debacle are still around. Miliband really is perceived by the core working class vote as a complete loser.
The Tories are beyond the pale. The LimpDumps might keep popular MPs but their numbers will be reduced to a single figure and of no effect in the creation of a functioning Parliamentary majority.
There has to be individual winners and most of the would-be winners are so unpopular politically that this Election should be worth staying up for the results!
osho
it was not budget cuts that led to Mid Staff. Had Mid Staff been a private hospital, it would be facing financial ruin, with senior managers being charged.
There is none as blind as those who refuse to see.
osho
Look, most people are not pure left or right. On some issues majority favour right wing policies (cut welfare fraud, stop illegal immigration) and on others they are left (NHS, basic safety net for the genuinely in need).
It is this bipolar division that has created the current mess; instead of dealing with each issue on its merit, politicians and their advisers retreat into neat binary positions.
Average Joe andJosephine are more intelligent than politicians give them credit for.
BTW, whatever UKIP are, they are not Far Right.
Basic rule of internet debate. The first person to shout Nazi/Far Right has lost the argument