Today YouGov released poll data that UKIP are on 14 per cent - something that wasn't news to me as this is exactly the same as the calculations I made last week. However the figure looks decidedly dodgy.
Andrew Spooner is a London-based blogger and writer
Today YouGov released poll data which had Ukip on 14 per cent – something that wasn’t news to me as it is exactly the same as the calculations I made last week.
YouGov’s poll comes after data published by ICM in the Guardian which claims Ukip has an 18 per cent vote share.
So how could Ukip achieve this much of the national vote share? This figure, too, looks decidedly dodgy.
If we take 31.5million or 66 per cent of voters as a likely General Election turn out, Ukip would need 5,670,000 to reach 18 per cent. Of that 31.5million, if Ukip polled a uniform 20 per cent or 3,700,000 across the roughly 18.5million voters who might turn out from the UK’s shires, towns and small and medium cities and combined that with 12.5 per cent or one million from eight million voters in the major cities Ukip would then need 970,000 or 19.4 per cent from Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales to reach 18 per cent nationally.
Given that Ukip just don’t exist in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, a 19.4 per cent vote share there is not only very unlikely it would be miraculous.
Give Ukip a more likely and still very generous 7.5 per cent in the major cities and five per cent in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, and they would need 4,820,000 or 26 per cent across the rest of the country to make 18 per cent of the total vote share. Again, very unlikely.
Bring Ukip’s vote share down to the 4.16 per cent they achieved in Bristol – the only major city they’ve recently competed for the vote in – for the urban vote, totalling 330,000, and down to the 0.5 per cent or 25,000 vote share they took in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales in 2012, Ukip would be left needing 5,312,000, or 28.7 per cent in the rest of the UK, almost a full one per cent above what they polled in Eastleigh, to make the figure up to 18 per cent.
It just doesn’t stack up I’m afraid.
41 Responses to “Ukip’s 18 per cent debunked”
Frankie D.
“socialist coalition 2010 to 2013.”
You fucking stupid moron…..
Frankie D.
“socialist coalition 2010 to 2013.”
You fucking stupid moron…..
Nick
This article is a joke lol To claim that UKIP are non existent in Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland is ridiculous when you look at the polls since beginning of 2012.
1. In Wales UKIP regularly poll over 10%, a recent Wales only poll found that UKIP would take 5 Welsh Assembly Seats if election was tomorrow.
2. Northern Ireland are not even included in national polls (Lib&Lab dont even stand there & Cons have zero NI representation, whereas UKIP have 1 MLA and 2 councillors) besides which local NI polls show UKIP growing in NI.
3. The most recent YouGov poll in Scotland has UKIP at 12% (compared to LibDems 4%). UKIP consistently poll at/above/around 8% in Scotland. A year or so ago you would have a point but you seem to be unwilling to see the facts changing before your eyes.
4. I’d also like to point out that UKIP is achieving these figures without even prompting respondents in polling question. The polling questions all prompt for Con, Lab, Lib, SNP, Plaid and “Other”. If anything I would argue that most of the polls especially YouGov are undervaluing UKIP’s polling figure and overvaluing Labour’s! Given who Peter Kellner (YouGov’s president) is married to I am not at all surprised! All the polls said UKIP would not gain more than 40 seats in the local elections, this was wrong by a factor of 3.5! Furthermore, even ComRes’s prediction of 22% of the vote (which was considered overly optomistic) was 4% less than the actual figure on the day of 26% (not to be confused with Projected National Vote Share – 23%)
Keep it up guys…nobody believes you anymore and there is so much evidence to say that your twisting and inventing facts! It all looks very desperate. The reality is that the polls show Labour slipping out of majority territory at the expense of UKIP. It is amusing to watch Labour making the same mistakes as the Torys (being abusive, mocking and spreading lies), it is clear that the same fate awaits you! The way things are going, neither the Conservatives or Labour will achieve more than 30% of the vote….never mind 40%
cargill55
Merci pur votre ????
cargill55
Hey, life that bad man?
Chill have a glass of albarino and check the beautiful Mediterranean sun.