Today YouGov released poll data that UKIP are on 14 per cent - something that wasn't news to me as this is exactly the same as the calculations I made last week. However the figure looks decidedly dodgy.
Andrew Spooner is a London-based blogger and writer
Today YouGov released poll data which had Ukip on 14 per cent – something that wasn’t news to me as it is exactly the same as the calculations I made last week.
YouGov’s poll comes after data published by ICM in the Guardian which claims Ukip has an 18 per cent vote share.
So how could Ukip achieve this much of the national vote share? This figure, too, looks decidedly dodgy.
If we take 31.5million or 66 per cent of voters as a likely General Election turn out, Ukip would need 5,670,000 to reach 18 per cent. Of that 31.5million, if Ukip polled a uniform 20 per cent or 3,700,000 across the roughly 18.5million voters who might turn out from the UK’s shires, towns and small and medium cities and combined that with 12.5 per cent or one million from eight million voters in the major cities Ukip would then need 970,000 or 19.4 per cent from Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales to reach 18 per cent nationally.
Given that Ukip just don’t exist in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, a 19.4 per cent vote share there is not only very unlikely it would be miraculous.
Give Ukip a more likely and still very generous 7.5 per cent in the major cities and five per cent in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, and they would need 4,820,000 or 26 per cent across the rest of the country to make 18 per cent of the total vote share. Again, very unlikely.
Bring Ukip’s vote share down to the 4.16 per cent they achieved in Bristol – the only major city they’ve recently competed for the vote in – for the urban vote, totalling 330,000, and down to the 0.5 per cent or 25,000 vote share they took in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales in 2012, Ukip would be left needing 5,312,000, or 28.7 per cent in the rest of the UK, almost a full one per cent above what they polled in Eastleigh, to make the figure up to 18 per cent.
It just doesn’t stack up I’m afraid.
41 Responses to “Ukip’s 18 per cent debunked”
Jeff Hurford
Unfortunately it is not true that UKIP does not exist in Wales – they have one out of four MEPs. Which they won with 87,585 votes – 12.8%.
cargill55
Wishful thinking.
You conveniently forget the 24.6% UKIP got on May 2, the 26.5% they have polled since in local elections and the 20% plus they will get with the next Opinium, Survation polls.
Oh, also, Yougov substantially understates UKIP because they do not give UKIP as a separate option and don’t knows are weighted on the basis of the 3% UKIP got in 2010.
Labour 34%, under the Miliband search for floating voter 35%.
UKIP is the future because social democracy has failed.
The left is finished in this country, ta, ta 🙂
cargill55
They are getting so desperate now, the left on its way to electoral oblivion.
Miliband is such a dictator he does not even allow the electorate a choice on national sovereignty, nor does Clegg, so much for democracy on the left, more like dictatorship.
cargill55
What Liblabcon does not get is that UKIP is growing in strength because Liblabcon are despised as incompetent self serving fools who hate Britain.
It started with mad Labour 1997 to 2010 and has continued with the socialist coalition 2010 to 2013.
So disgust at Liblabcon, total lack of trust therefore whatever Liblabcon does will be wrong which is where the focus then comes on stuff like the EU and immigration.
Game over chaps 🙂
Frankie D.
“socialist coalition 2010 to 2013.”
You fucking stupid moron…..