Today YouGov released poll data that UKIP are on 14 per cent - something that wasn't news to me as this is exactly the same as the calculations I made last week. However the figure looks decidedly dodgy.
Andrew Spooner is a London-based blogger and writer
Today YouGov released poll data which had Ukip on 14 per cent – something that wasn’t news to me as it is exactly the same as the calculations I made last week.
YouGov’s poll comes after data published by ICM in the Guardian which claims Ukip has an 18 per cent vote share.
So how could Ukip achieve this much of the national vote share? This figure, too, looks decidedly dodgy.
If we take 31.5million or 66 per cent of voters as a likely General Election turn out, Ukip would need 5,670,000 to reach 18 per cent. Of that 31.5million, if Ukip polled a uniform 20 per cent or 3,700,000 across the roughly 18.5million voters who might turn out from the UK’s shires, towns and small and medium cities and combined that with 12.5 per cent or one million from eight million voters in the major cities Ukip would then need 970,000 or 19.4 per cent from Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales to reach 18 per cent nationally.
Given that Ukip just don’t exist in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, a 19.4 per cent vote share there is not only very unlikely it would be miraculous.
Give Ukip a more likely and still very generous 7.5 per cent in the major cities and five per cent in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, and they would need 4,820,000 or 26 per cent across the rest of the country to make 18 per cent of the total vote share. Again, very unlikely.
Bring Ukip’s vote share down to the 4.16 per cent they achieved in Bristol – the only major city they’ve recently competed for the vote in – for the urban vote, totalling 330,000, and down to the 0.5 per cent or 25,000 vote share they took in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales in 2012, Ukip would be left needing 5,312,000, or 28.7 per cent in the rest of the UK, almost a full one per cent above what they polled in Eastleigh, to make the figure up to 18 per cent.
It just doesn’t stack up I’m afraid.
41 Responses to “Ukip’s 18 per cent debunked”
Sgt. Analbeadz
We really need Nate Silver over here. This term has seen some of the most transparent manipulation of statistics ever. It would be funny if people’s actual lives didn’t kinda depend on it.
Elias
ICM and YouGov also don’t take into account local differences, which is the point of the article. While, yes, 14% of YouGov’s total respondents will have said they would vote for UKIP, that does not mean 14% of EVERY constituency across the whole of the UK will. They will have strong areas and weak areas, just like Labour and the Lib Dems and the Tories. That limits their potential to gain seats at an election, given that they are a minority party and still upstarts in the scheme of things.
Mike_docherty
The most recent ICM poll – much of which was published in the Guardian on 14.5.13 – has UKIP support in Scotland at just 2%.
Rallan
Who cares?That’s just an irrelevant comparison by a political anorak. UKIP isn’t the Tea Party, this isn’t the USA. The issues, economy and culture are different. And I don’t know (or care) who Nate Silver or PPP are.
So I really don’t care who “laughed last” there since it’s nothing to do with what’s happening here.
blarg1987
There could be many reasons for UKIp doing so well, protest vote against the political parties, people’s fear due to uncertain economic times etc all of which are contributing factors. The trouble I do have with UKIP is that Nigel Farrage claims immigrants from Europe can claim benefits on day 1 in the UK, however he has not offered proof i.e. which piece of legislation nor has anyone asked to see the piece of legislation. On something that can be so controversial, questions like this have to be asked and answered so either our fears can be confirmed or relaxed.