Following the letter from the EC confirming Scotland would have to apply to rejoin the EU, James Hallwood looks back on another woeful week for Alex Salmond.
Following the letter to the Lords European Union committee from the European Commission confirming an independent Scotland would have to apply to rejoin the EU, James Hallwood looks at the pitfalls that lie ahead for Alex Salmond
The letter flies in the face of the SNP’s long held position Scotland would automatically remain a member and also brings into question, once more, the reason for their apparent lack of legal advice on this critical issue. While the letter awaits formal ratification it is in line with previous advice that seceding from the UK would make Scotland a ‘third country’ outside of the EU.
This would mean having to re-apply for membership via the criteria of Article 49 of the Lisbon Treaty – i.e. with the unanimous support of the member states. Given Spain, amongst others, has already voiced concerns about the precedent this would set, there can be no guarantee Scotland would be admitted back into the European Union.
As the framer of this referendum, the Scottish government has a duty to provide the pros, cons, knowns and unknowns of Scottish independence – wishful thinking is simply not enough; the Scottish people deserve the facts.
An independent Scotland could in theory re-join the EU but would not automatically be a member – therefore the details of a potential settlement are crucial to the decision of the Scottish electorate. The European Commission has stated the remnants of the UK would maintain EU membership and thus all of the opt-outs, redlines and rebate successive British governments have secured over the years.
Assuming Scotland is accepted into the EU, in line with other new accession countries, she would not have any of these and would therefore be expected to join Schengen and the euro – again contrary to what the SNP has set out.
Furthermore, the Council of the European Union weights votes of member states by their population size. Britain currently joins France and Germany at the top with 29 votes – but an independent Scotland would likely join other countries with a comparative population, like Slovakia, with 7 votes. It would not just be losing the seat at the UN Security Council that would lessen Scotland’s voice in the world.
There is, of course, another scenario – Scotland is not admitted into the European Union.
This isn’t as unlikely as it sounds, as accession requires unanimous support from all current members. When one considers the numerous secession movements in Europe one can easily see how the precedent of independence followed by EU membership and investment would worry some countries – it takes only one member to veto Scotland’s application – or at least negotiate a very unattractive package to an acceding Scotland.
Even now, five EU countries continue to refuse recognition of an independent Kosovo. Four years on, Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain remain opposed. They present a multitude of reasons but all share the common factor of separatist movements in their own territory. Indeed the very issue of the precedent it would set to Catalonia or the Basque regions was raised in the Spanish parliament in argument against recognition.
Last year, Catalonian voters gave a majority to separatist parties. These parties seek a referendum on independence from Spain followed by EU membership. The similarities to Scotland are obvious, so much so that Salmond refused to comment on Catalan independence, well aware Spain could likely be the stumbling block to his plans.
The SNP is also a member of the European Free Alliance grouping in the European Parliament – with separatist parties from 14 other states. These represent just some of the many nationalist movements from across Europe that look to Scotland as a model to follow. A model that states as diverse as Belgium and Bulgaria have an interest in preventing succeed.
Time and time again the SNP has made statements on EU membership that are contradicted by the British government, international law experts, member states and now the EU itself. Salmond has a responsibility to make clear the price of Scottish independence; the onus is on him to present the risks so the Scottish people can make an informed decision.
The principles of unionism and separatism should outweigh the benefits of EU membership. But presenting a false future for Scotland does the ‘yes’ campaign no credit. An unfavourable settlement or no EU membership at all torpedoes Salmond’s vision for Scotland. Scots should know that leaving the UK could mean they are, quite literally, going it alone.
See also:
• Another blow for Salmond – Scottish businesses say No to Independence – December 7th, 2012
• It’s official: Independent Scotland would have to reapply for EU membership – December 7th, 2012
• David Miliband: Scotland can’t just “leave the UK on Friday, join the EU on Monday” – November 24th, 2012
• Legal ding-dong on EU advice as Clegg wades in to Holyrood scrap – November 2nd, 2012
• Advice? What advice? Salmond finds himself in more hot water over EU ‘lies’ – October 29th, 2012
71 Responses to “Comment: Salmond, Scotland and the EU – time for the first minister to finally come clean”
douglas clark
newsbot,
Nothing underhand about it. My comment asked a simple enough question:
Are you James Hallwood, or not?
From your final sentence, I am somewhat relieved to discover that you aren’t. However several other posters appear to be under that misapprehension.
As my previous comment on this thread is – to the best of my recollection – the only time I have ever commented here, I fail to see what other posts you can be referring to.
Holebender
According to http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?c=fr&v=88 France is ranked 52 in the list of oil producing countries, while Germany sits at number 45. Their combined oil production is less than Denmark’s (number 38). Meanwhile the UK sits at number 20, with five times the oil production of Denmark. After independence Scotland would still be at number 20 with five times Denmark’s output, and the rest of the UK would sit at number 49, between Romania and Chad.
Facts are chiels that winna ding…
Bill C
James Connolly was a member of various socialist organisations during his short lifetime, none of which could be remotely compared to the centre right policies of the present day Labour Party. To indulge in such comparison, is to mock the memory of one of Scotland’s greatest socialist thinkers. I note that you conveniently fail to acknowledge that John Mclean and Jimmy Reid were both committed to an independent Scotland.
As to your last point on my “behaviour”, I am at a loss to undertstand what is anti-democratic about arguing for self determination for your own country. I assume that you would support self determination for other peoples e.g. The Palistinians; it is rather peculiar therefore, that you obviously do not support self determination for the Scottish people.
Spammo Twatbury
Wow. Poor old newsbot9’s been teetering on the edge of a total mental breakdown on the subject of Scotland for quite a while now, but I see he’s finally taken the leap. Exactly how many independent assessments declaring the SNP to be the most left-wing party in any Parliament in Britain (with the sole arguable exception of that one lonely Green MP) do we need before these demented lunatics accept the simple reality? Do we need to post that politicalcompass.org link for a 20,000th time?
The SNP is not winning seats in poor urban parts of Glasgow that have been held by Labour since some time in the 12th century by being on the far right. You’d imagine that would be the first page in the first folder at the front of the “Bleeding Obvious” drawer in the filing cabinet, but apparently not to this frothing nutjob,
Hen Broon
Your public humiliation and meltdown on here is really pathetic you should just go back under your stone with the rest of your black ops squad every time you lot try and fling mud it ends up all over your faces, really hilarious try some of this advice.
By Martin Kelly
Incessant negativity coming from the anti-independence camp could backfire according to a top pro-Union businessman.
Robert
Durward, who is the managing director of Cloburn Quarry Company, has
written to Better Together head Alistair Darling urging the Labour MP to
focus on a more positive message instead.
According to the Sunday Times, in his letter Mr Durward said that
“constantly lining up people to denigrate Scotland’s options and
capabilities could easily backfire and there are already signs of this”.
The businessman added: “Unionists must of course counter the campaign
for separation, but the best way to get a result will be to concentrate
on what can be achieved rather than on what is allegedly beyond us.
“Scotland has significant problems in education, health care,
housing, employment, transport and finance, so why not put your
collective brainpower, political experience and media access into
identifying solutions for these issues?”
The businessman has suggested another cross party parallel group,
Better Scotland, be set up that would allow the country’s challenges to
be addressed.
He added: “You have gathered an impressive team, you have two years
to influence the outcome but it can only be done in a positive manner.
At present you risk making matters worse.”
The warning follows an almost constant flow of scares and negativity
often portraying a post-referendum apocalyptic scenario with an
independent Scotland unable to sustain itself. Scares have included
claims that an independent Scotland would be forced to join the Euro,
that the rest of the UK would cease trading with Scotland and bizarrely
that electricity generated in Scotland that currently helps keep the
lights on south of the border would no longer be purchased.
Speaking to the Sunday Times, a Better Together spokesman denied that the No campaign was too negative.
He said: “Our campaign message is an entirely positive one. Scotland
has achieved great things as part of the union and we also believe there
is much more we can do in the future when we stand together with our
friends, families and workmates from across Britain.”
The attack by a leading businessman follows a recent decision by the
Scottish TUC not to join Labour alongside their Tory and Lib Dem
partners.
The negative attacks are expected to continue this week following
figures published last week by the Office for Budget Responsibility
(OBR).
The body, created by Chancellor George Osborne after the 2010 general
election, last week forecast a fall in North Sea extraction levels and
oil prices. The figures have been used by the Centre for Public Policy
for Regions (CPPR) in order to suggest that Scotland’s deficit will be
greater than that of the UK in 2014/15.
According to the Sunday Times, the OBR forecasts – described by the
SNP as pessimistic – which claims oil receipts will fall by fifty per
cent over the next two years have been used by Professor John McLaren of
the CPPR to paint a gloomy picture of the Scottish economy.
Mr McLaren’s report follows recently published figures that indicate
an independent Scotland would currently have a deficit which was less
than it shoulders as part of the UK.
The gloomy prediction by the OBR follows similar claims made by the
body in July this year when it forecast that by 2040 North Sea oil would
generate receipts only half that previously expected.
In July it said: “Our projections for oil and gas prices are also
lower than last year…oil prices rise from $95 a barrel in 2016 to $173
a barrel in 2040.
“This compares with a projection in last year’s report of a rise from $107 a barrel in 2015, rising to $206 a barrel in 2040.”
However the body’s reputation as an accurate forecaster suffered a blow this year after it was forced to admit its previous forecasts on the UK economic performance were widely inaccurate.
In December last year, just months after being formed, the body was
forced to revise UK growth figures from its initial projection of 2.5%
growth for 2012 down to just 0.7%. Official figures last week showed
that the UK economy in fact shrank by 0.1% throughout 2012.
Appearing in front of a Commons Treasury Select Committee in July
2012, OBR head Robert Chote conceded that the chance of OBR predictions
being “bang on the nail” were “practically nil”. The appearance
followed another prediction that claimed snow over Christmas last year
would reduce the chances of the UK slipping back into recession.
In fact the heavy snowfall that eventually hit the UK was one of the
factors blamed for plunging the UK into a double dip recession in April.
http://tiny.cc/z5h2ow