With the campaign to defeat independence not due to be launched formally until next Monday, the independence campaign could have used this time to its advantage.
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It’s roughly a month since Alex Salmond launched the Yes to Independence campaign in Edinburgh, with a pledge that a million Scots would sign a pledge supporting the efforts to see Scotland an independent nation.
With the campaign to defeat independence not due to be launched formally until next Monday, Salmond et al should have had free reign over the past four weeks to build that treasured possession in politics, namely momentum.
Instead, we have witnessed what could possibly be the start of a new omnishambles with the campaign lurching from one problem to another, with splits across the movement.
Firstly, just days after the campaign launch, Yes Scotland was forced to make changes to its website, after it emerged that those who were merely following the campaign’s twitter feed were being listed as full blown supporters.
Then, following Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon’s assertions that Scotland would have a guaranteed voice around the Bank of England table as part of their plans to retain sterling, the Treasury made quite clear that this was a no-no, explaining in a statement:
“Scotland using the pound through a sterlingisation mechanism… would have no say over its own monetary policy as set by the Bank of England.”
This was followed soon after by the sight and sound of Scottish Green co-convenor Patrick Harvie deciding to withdraw his party from the formal Yes campaign in protest at how dominated it had all become by the first minister to the determinant of other voices.
Yesterday came the news that, and I kid you not, on the advice of someone called Claire Howell, a psychology consultant who is apparently a long-standing adviser to the SNP, Alex Salmond has urged his MSPs to stop using the term “independence” and instead speak of an “independent Scotland”, which is apparently more appealing to the voters.
• Salmond at Leveson: Was that it? 14 Jun 2012
• “Yes Scotland” campaign in chaos as fears spread of an SNP hijack 11 Jun 2012
• Ed Miliband: The future of the UK is ‘too important’ to be decided only by Scotland 7 Jun 2012
And today comes the bizarre news that the SNP MP Angus Robertson, Campaign Director of “Yes Scotland”, has used an interview with the German magazine Weiner Zeitung to claim that he is not in fact a nationalist.
Asked whether the Queen would remain head of state over an independent Scotland, he argued:
“Yes, I think so, in the context of the Commonwealth. I believe that our overall relationship with England would be a better one: Scots are open and friendly people, we are cosmopolitans – the German translation of my party’s name makes me angry: we aren’t nationalists.”
And the results of all this? One look at the Times this morning will make grim reading for the nationalists, with polling results compiled by Ipsos Mori for the paper showing (£) that 35% said they would support independence, down 4% since January when the very same question was asked. Those favouring the status quo stood at 55%, 5% up during the same period.
What is more, although 53% of respondents said that they were still “satisfied” with the first minister, this remains 5% down from January with the level of dissatisfaction with the job Mr Salmond is doing having risen from 36% to 40% now. Whilst the Yes campaign has sought to dismiss the findings as just one of many which have shown different things, they will be acutely aware of Scottish Labour’s assertion that the more the people of Scotland hear about independence the less they like it.
As Mark Diffley, Research Director at Ipsos MORI. has said:
“This poll reinforces the task ahead for the ‘Yes’ to independence campaign. Despite a high profile launch of their campaign, the public appears unconvinced as yet and support for independence has fallen. The difficulty faced by the campaign is reinforced by the fall in the personal approval rating for the first minister.
“He remains Scotland’s most prominent politician and well liked party leader but his rating has now fallen below what we saw in the immediate aftermath of last year’s election victory and returned to the levels we were recording in 2010.”
29 Responses to “Salmond’s independence campaign lurches from one problem to another”
Anonymous
If social democracy is going to succeed in countering the neo-barbarism of neo-liberalism, then the Left in EWNI are going to have to so a bit more sophisticated thinking than blindly opposing the SNP and Scotland’s return to self government in order to prop up Labour in Scotland and hope to win at the next GE.
Sometimes the ‘obvious’ thing to do is the wrong method to achieve goals. In this case the ‘obvious’ thing to do is to assume that the SNP is ‘the enemy’ because it is opposed by Labour in Scotland.
This also assumes that opposing a national movement for self determination is a) morally justifiable, b) not a hopeless lost cause c) somehow supportive of Left ideals.
There are such things as global historical trends, since WWII all the sizeable bits of the British Empire have become fully self governing. The UN has increased by over 120 newly self governing countries. Scotland is simply another.
With the growth of international shared organisations, UN, EU etc, has come a matching trend for people wanting a direct say in such forums.
The world is a much better educated place than 50 years ago. With education comes the demand for more local say and democracy. This led to the Scottish Parliament and is now leading to demand for more powers and control by the Parliament.
International agreements and Unions have their purpose, meet needs for a given time and then fall into disuse or get scrapped. The defence, trade and other reasons for the Union (such as preserving the Protestant religion) are now simply badly outdated. Why get so wired up in defence of an outdated arrangement.
To return to the theme of this post, the Left needs to think more long term, and more strategically. Despite the coalition unpopularity, Tory incompetence, etc, Left thinking is on the back foot at present in EWNI. In order to get in on the front foot, needs there is a massive need for strategic repositioning. Signing up to back the arch-Unionist Tories is definitely NOT going to positively reposition the Left.
So here is an alternative scenario. Consider that the Left stay true to its support for Human Rights, including the Right to Self Determination. enshrined in the UN. Box canny and back off the trap of allying publicly and disastrously with the Tories and LibDems in support of a Union that is going to end anyway, sooner or later. Instead, start examining the already progressive social democratic legislation and administrative steps taken by the SNP. In short, take a leaf out of the Tories book. They are expert at cherry picking the best of other parties policies and adopting them. (If you are not aware how Westminster has been copycatting SNP policies then you need to catch up)
What I advocate, is that the Left takes a ‘long shortcut’. Back off the trap of being ultra-Unionists. There are no prizes or winners in that route. Instead, watch, study, adapt and adopt the best of the pioneering methods being used in Scotland. Translate and interpret those social democratic policies for English needs and wants. In three years time, Scotland will dissolve the Union. Given the current head in sand posture of most politicians, the establishment will be in disarray. This presents the opportunity for success for the Left. If they have spent the intervening time and energy demonising and dismissing the best social democratic movement in Britain, the Left will be as unprepared as the others. If the Left has disengaged, observed, deliberated and prepared, then the Left can present clear, coherent, cogent arguments as to how the constitution and government of EWNI must be reorganised. The ‘long shortcut’ is the quick route to reform. Let Scotland reform itself its way. Get prepared to reform EWNI when the once in generations opportunity opens up.
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