This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression

New analysis shows the economy’s struggle to get back to its previous peak, which took place in Q1 2008, will take longer even that the Great Depression.

The UK’s recovery is set to be the longest since records began. New analysis shows the economy’s struggle to get back to its previous peak, which took place in the first quarter of 2008, will take longer even that the Great Depression.

Nearly four years since the recession started, the UK economy is still four per cent below its previous peak. Using optimistic projections from the OBR of 0.7% growth per quarter, Britain would still face a further year and a half before the level of economic activity returned to its peak at the start of 2008.

As reported in today’s Mirror, in the 1930s, the economy returned to its previous peak after 16 quarters (four years). But it is set to take at least 19 quarters (just under five years) to do the same this time. If growth falls further, as many are predicting, or Britain hits a double dip recession, the slump could be even longer lasting.

The present recovery will also be far slower than following the recessions of 1973, 1979 and 1990, as the graph below shows:


Despite leaving three million unemployed, the 1990-92 recovery took a relatively quick 13 quarters before output returned to its previous peak. The 1973-76 recovery was completed in 14 quarters while it took 17 quarters to complete the 1979-83 recovery following the austerity of Geoffrey Howe’s 1981 Budget.

21 Responses to “This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression”

  1. Rick

    This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression: http://t.co/WEhb4fl reports @wdjstraw

  2. Ian

    This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression: http://t.co/WEhb4fl reports @wdjstraw

  3. neilrfoster

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  4. shugyokem

    This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression: http://t.co/btMFBAR @earwiggle @TheGreenBenches rt @leftfootfwd

  5. Alex Braithwaite

    RT @leftfootfwd: This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression http://t.co/0ckNn2G – thanks a bunch Scam and co.

  6. Shamik Das

    This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression: http://t.co/WEhb4fl reports @wdjstraw

  7. Ian Newbury

    This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression: http://t.co/WEhb4fl reports @wdjstraw

  8. E Azicate

    This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression: http://t.co/WEhb4fl reports @wdjstraw

  9. Political Planet

    This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression: New analysis shows the economy’s struggle to get back t… http://t.co/mB0fyk9

  10. Michael

    This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression l Will Straw l Left Foot Forward – http://j.mp/pdYV08

  11. H. O.

    RT @leftfootfwd: This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression http://t.co/r8PZ35U

  12. 4Depression

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  13. IFS questions Osborne’s “short sighted” failure to invest in science and skills | Left Foot Forward

    […] the news today that this is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression, coming on top of all the other evidence, George Osborne’s […]

  14. Kevin Richards

    Come on George get you head out of the sand RT @leftfootfwd: This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression http://t.co/NFlYKAh

  15. Mr. Sensible

    More evidence that Osborne’s strategy isn’t working.

  16. Maria Touramani

    This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression: http://t.co/WEhb4fl reports @wdjstraw

  17. Gary Flood

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  18. London IWW

    This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression http://t.co/okFes34 | #UKeconomy

  19. Charlie Holden

    RT @leftfootfwd: This is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression http://t.co/9mIy4jL

  20. Look Left – World unites to remember the day time stood still | Left Foot Forward

    […] was “slower and choppier” than after previous recessions – indeed, as Left Foot Forward reported on Monday, this is the slowest recovery since the Great Depression. It predicts the UK economy […]

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