Politicians refuse to tell the truth to voters, when they say that immigration is the cause of persistently high worklessness, writes Declan Gaffney.
‘British jobs for British workers’ was one of the most idiotic slogans ever voiced by a Labour leader, combining economic illiteracy with staggeringly inept political opportunism. With that simple phrase Gordon Brown mobilised a misleading association between two of the most poisonous issues in UK politics – migration and benefit receipt – which blew up in his face.
It also handed the Conservatives the basis for a narrative on employment under Labour which has gained widespread acceptance despite being demonstrably false: all the growth in jobs went to migrants leaving out-of-work benefit receipt unchanged.
Back in 2009 the then leader of the opposition David Cameron quite rightly said:
“The Prime Minister should never have used that slogan. On the one hand he lectures everyone about globalisation and on the other he borrows this slogan from the BNP. He has been taking people for fools and has been found out.”
But if the Conservatives have avoided the slogan, they have never ceased to deploy the flawed reasoning behind it to trash Labour’s record. With Iain Duncan Smith’s speech in Madrid yesterday, ‘British jobs for British workers’ is back on the agenda.
The precedent was not lost on the editorial writer for that morning’s Daily Mail:
“Of all the broken Labour promises, few have turned out to be more hollow than Gordon Brown’s commitment to provide ‘British jobs for British workers’. Migrants allowed unfettered access to the labour market grabbed the lion’s share of new jobs while our unemployed, many of them school-leavers, were consigned to a life of welfare dependency.”
The Express was similarly supportive:
“For so long as Britain’s labour market is open to all-comers from dozens of other countries, the chances of getting our own long-term unemployed into work will be greatly impaired.”
There is little point in arguing with statements like this, which are related to labour market economics in much the same way as astrology is related to astronomy.
The table below shows what happened to employment and benefit receipt under the last government.
Prior to the financial markets crisis, employment grew by three million and out-of-work benefit receipt fell by over a million. With the ensuing recession employment fell and out-of-work benefit receipt rose. These are not the same thing: it is perfectly possible for employment and benefit receipt to rise at the same time, and the fact that the movements in both are of similar scale in the table below is a coincidence.
To claim that migration prevented welfare receipt from falling is to offer an incoherent explanation for something that didn’t happen.
Table 1:
Migration can affect benefit receipt, but not in the direct manner assumed in the musings of armchair labour market experts. Under certain circumstances, migration can affect wages and this can have knock-on effects on employment: you can read the theory here.
But studies of the impact of migration in the UK have found no or very slight negative impacts on wages for ‘native-born’ workers. So if there are any impacts from migration through lower wages to lower employment and thus higher benefit receipt, they are insignificant compared to the other factors which drive worklessness.
But this sort of detail is beside the point. The welfare/migration myth doesn’t involve even rudimentary economic theory. To borrow David Cameron’s words, it takes people for fools. We will have to see whether his minister will be ‘found out’. It seems unlikely, as the opposition, whose job this would be, have saddled themselves with their own version of the same myth.
The enduring mystery about ‘British jobs for Britsh workers’ is how and why Labour came to believe that it could dip into this know-nothing political territory without causing lasting damage to its reputation on employment and welfare.
28 Responses to “When will politicians stop taking the public for fools on immigration?”
Dave Citizen
@ Leon & Micheal – when I said “carefully control immigration” I meant only that – not prevent it. We should know who is coming to work here, why and what impact they’re going to have on our Society.
Granted, there will be some industries where particular skilled employees are needed to set up business development and trigger growth, to society’s advantage. I say invite such people in while frantically investing in training etc. to fill future gaps.
My comments related more to those areas where economic migrants quite understandably come here to get more pay for basic work such as building labourers, hotel staff or motorway service work. This boosts profits for businesses and rents for landlords but is it good for host communities and competing local workers?
Britain has tended to have immigration policies that just reflect the interests of business owners and landlords, leading to further inequality and understandable resentment.
As to “the small matter that immigrants come to work and thus create prosperity” – this really is hopelessly simplistic. Material prosperity generally depends on what you can afford with your wages – if housing is in shorter supply and there’s more competition for the jobs you can do then your wages will go less far. Wider prosperity depends on a sense of wellbeing in where you live – if you feel under threat or your children’s education is being impacted then that ain’t good for your prosperity. Fostering real wealth growth is a complex matter and will, I suggest, mean thinking carefully about the industries we encourage, ensuring our population is well educated and trained and making sure we don’t pander to the narrow interests of the current business / landowning elite.
Christoffel Manana
RT @leftfootfwd: When will politicians stop taking the public for fools on immigration? http://t.co/pHn0C59
DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says... | Left Foot Forward
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