Clinton: UK’s austerity budget could mean deficit will increase

Bill Clinton has warned that Britain's spending cuts could end up raising the deficit. He is the highest profile critic yet of the coalition's economic strategy.

Bill Clinton yesterday warned David Cameron that Britain’s spending cuts could end up raising the deficit. He becomes the highest profile critic yet of the Tory-led coalition’s economic strategy.

Speaking at the annual Campus Progress conference in Washington DC, the former US President said:

“In the current Budget debate there is all this discussion about how much will come from spending cuts, how much will come from tax increases. Almost nobody’s talking about one of the central points that everyone who’s analysed this situation makes – including the bipartisan Simpson-Bowles Commission – which said you shouldn’t do any of this until the economy is clearly recovering.

“Because if you do things that dampen economic growth. And the UK’s finding this out now. They adopted this big austerity budget. And there’s a good chance that economic activity will go down so much that tax revenues will be reduced even more than spending is cut and their deficit will increase.”

Watch it:

The warning follows concerns a fortnight ago from the head of the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank, that the prospects for growth certainly don’t look rosy” and that a Plan B might be necessary if the OBR downgraded its predictions of growth. The chief economist of the OECD, Pier Carlo Padon, has said recently, “we see merit in slowing the pace of fiscal consolidation if there is not so good news on the growth front.” Even the IMF said earlier this month that there are, “significant risks to inflation, growth and unemployment”.

US gross federal debt (Table 7.1) was 66.1 per cent when Bill Clinton became president in 1993 and had fallen to 56.4 per cent when he left office in 2001. In 2001 – after eight years of George Bush – it had risen again to 83.4 per cent.

49 Responses to “Clinton: UK’s austerity budget could mean deficit will increase”

  1. Avatar photo

    Will Straw

    William – Expenditure is falling as a % of GDP. To measure it any other way is flawed. Growth has been flat for the past 6 months and we’re heading for 1.4% in 2011 (nearly half what the OBR predicted this time last year). If you’re a public sector worker or contractor, recipient of tax credits like the childcare tax credit, or shopper subject to VAT (ie everyone) you’ll certainly be feeling the austerity.

    Anon – When did I ever predict double dip? Others may have done but dont tar me with the same brush. I said that the Tory strategy risked a double dip and since growth has been flat for the last six months, I’d say that was pretty accurate.

  2. Josh

    But as a % of GDP, public expenditure is returning to where it was 3-4 years ago. That was hardly a time of Dickensian austerity for public services, and in absolute terms, no government has cut spending since Stafford Cripps in the 1947-48 during post war austerity. The size of government and public expenditure has inexorably increased, even during the supposed stringent Thatcher years.

  3. Politics live blog – Thursday 7 July 2011 | moregoodstuff.info

    […] lose from missing tax revenues – which is the Balls argument. Left Foot Forward have put a 54-second video of Clinton saying this on their blog. Here’s Clinton’s key quote. In the current Budget debate there is all this discussion […]

  4. Ed's Talking Balls

    Well said Josh. It is important to keep these things in perspective.

    I grow tired of people dealing in certainties where the economy is concerned. Simply, no-one, however well qualified, knows what is going to happen.

  5. Freedom of Speech

    And here's video of Clinton echoing @Edballsmp – Osborne's plan means "good chance deficit will increase" http://t.co/a7lT6Qr

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