Professor Robert Hazell, director of the Constitution Unit at the School of Public Policy, University College London, outlines the five steps to Scottish independence.
Professor Robert Hazell is the Director of the Constitution Unit at the School of Public Policy, University College London
Now the SNP have a majority in the Scottish Parliament, Scottish independence is back on the political agenda. But there are five steps along the road to independence, and the Scottish government needs to negotiate each one. The Constitution Unit set these steps out in our book Scottish Independence – A Practical Guide, by Jo Murkens and Peter Jones (Edinburgh Univ Press, 2002).
The first step is that a bill needs to be passed by the Scottish Parliament authorising a referendum. The referendum would ask the people of Scotland to approve the Scottish government entering into negotations with the British government.
The next step is the referendum itself. Opinion polls have consistently shown support for independence remaining at around 25 to 30 per cent. A vote for the SNP in Scottish elections may or may not translate into a vote for independence come referendum day.
The third step, if the referendum is passed, is negotations with the British government about the terms of independence.
These will include:
• Division of the national debt;
• North Sea oil;
• The future of the defence bases on the Clyde;
• Scotland’s membership of the European Union.
The Czech-Slovak velvet divorce in 1992 required 31 treaties and more than 2,000 separate agreements. Their equivalents for Scotland and the UK would take a long time to negotiate. Once concluded they would constitute the terms of independence, on which the people of Scotland deserve a separate vote.
The fourth step would be legislation for a second referendum, asking the people of Scotland to confirm that they want independence on these terms. This referendum can only be authorised by Westminster, because it is not within the competence of the Scottish Parliament unilaterally to declare independence – but in formal terms, the passage of the legislation may not prove too much of a stumbling block.
Successive British prime ministers have long recognised the Scottish people’s right to self determination. David Cameron has repeated that he will respect the will of the Scottish people.
The final step is the second referendum, asking the people of Scotland if they want independence on the terms which have been negotiated. The first referendum, if passed, would give the Scottish government authority to demand independence, and compel the UK government to enter into negotiations.
The SNP have said a second referendum would not be necessary. But it would give the people of Scotland the opportunity to know the detailed terms of independence before making their final, momentous decision.
71 Responses to “The five steps to Scottish independence”
Dave Citizen
Anon – I thought the result in Scotland was genuinely uplifting. It confirms there are parts of the UK where people think for themselves and have the guts to go their own way. Compare the positive ideas and attitudes in Scotland to England’s timid “there is no alternative”, “we can’t cut banker’s bonuses” and “you only have to pay your student loan back if you earn over 21k”.
13eastie
@cynicalHighlander
Trident could have been part of the cheapest divorce settlement ever, but if the Scots don’t want it after all…
Don’t forget flagships HMS Mothball, HMS White Elephant and their squadrons of the Fleet Air Arm’s most flightless birds – a snip at only £10bn*. We’ll have those back too.
It might take us a while, though**, to figure how, if Scotland really didn’t want the jobs/investment/skills/prestige, we’d be able to come up with a way to service a strategic nuclear capability for which every single bit of the intellectual property was owned by a really big ally of ours with 18 similar boats and naval bases “even bigger than Faslane” on two different oceans.
Keep plugging away with your chippy paranoia; everything will be fine because your compatriots are too canny to allow it ever actually to be put to the test.
And to think, a couple of posts back you were calling me a “unionist”!
*Price “negotiated” by a Scottish socialist, in secret, with English tax-payers’ money; contract put out to tender to every ship-builder in his Scottish constituency.
**Maybe as long as 15 secs
Stephen W
The point is independence itself is only nominally Plan A.
Plan B, and realistically the more likely plan A, is to keep beefing up the powers of the Scottish Parliament, until Scotland is effectively independent within the UK anyway.
This could be avoided as long as Salmond was a Minority administration, because the Unionist parties could reasonably block it. But with a Majority in the parliament the Unionist parties can go whistle. He can put whatever he likes through Holyrood and there’s almost nothing anyone else can do about it.
cynicalHighlander
@Mike C
Surely any referendum on independence will require a two-thirds majority.
Nonsense or dont you believe in democracy
cynicalHighlander
@13eastie
There’s an awful lot to be sorted like 40 years of oil revenues stolen and Trident provides less than 1000 jobs and is constantly polluting the seas with radiation leaks, park them on the Thames then the politicians can give them a loving pat every day they go to work.