Professor Robert Hazell, director of the Constitution Unit at the School of Public Policy, University College London, outlines the five steps to Scottish independence.
Professor Robert Hazell is the Director of the Constitution Unit at the School of Public Policy, University College London
Now the SNP have a majority in the Scottish Parliament, Scottish independence is back on the political agenda. But there are five steps along the road to independence, and the Scottish government needs to negotiate each one. The Constitution Unit set these steps out in our book Scottish Independence – A Practical Guide, by Jo Murkens and Peter Jones (Edinburgh Univ Press, 2002).
The first step is that a bill needs to be passed by the Scottish Parliament authorising a referendum. The referendum would ask the people of Scotland to approve the Scottish government entering into negotations with the British government.
The next step is the referendum itself. Opinion polls have consistently shown support for independence remaining at around 25 to 30 per cent. A vote for the SNP in Scottish elections may or may not translate into a vote for independence come referendum day.
The third step, if the referendum is passed, is negotations with the British government about the terms of independence.
These will include:
• Division of the national debt;
• North Sea oil;
• The future of the defence bases on the Clyde;
• Scotland’s membership of the European Union.
The Czech-Slovak velvet divorce in 1992 required 31 treaties and more than 2,000 separate agreements. Their equivalents for Scotland and the UK would take a long time to negotiate. Once concluded they would constitute the terms of independence, on which the people of Scotland deserve a separate vote.
The fourth step would be legislation for a second referendum, asking the people of Scotland to confirm that they want independence on these terms. This referendum can only be authorised by Westminster, because it is not within the competence of the Scottish Parliament unilaterally to declare independence – but in formal terms, the passage of the legislation may not prove too much of a stumbling block.
Successive British prime ministers have long recognised the Scottish people’s right to self determination. David Cameron has repeated that he will respect the will of the Scottish people.
The final step is the second referendum, asking the people of Scotland if they want independence on the terms which have been negotiated. The first referendum, if passed, would give the Scottish government authority to demand independence, and compel the UK government to enter into negotiations.
The SNP have said a second referendum would not be necessary. But it would give the people of Scotland the opportunity to know the detailed terms of independence before making their final, momentous decision.
71 Responses to “The five steps to Scottish independence”
Richard McKenzie
RT @leftfootfwd: The five steps to Scottish independence: http://bit.ly/iqX6Tr by Professor Robert Hazell of the UCL Constitution Unit
Joe Stalls
No problem with Scotland getting independence, but it must mean INDEPENDENCE….Scotland will be bordering one of the worls’s biggest economies with a population of 54 million and Englnd MUST NOT subsidise an independent Scotland in any way, All scottish MP’s MUST leave the Westminster Parliament immediately independence is declared and all people who consider themselves Scottish MUST return home. England must declare the border and control it. When Scotlan’s economy begins to crumble we don’t want thousands of independent Scots coming south to benefit from our economy
I for one would withold my taxes if ANY of them were being used to subsiise an independent Scotland
13eastie
Mr Slamond’s astonishing victory now raises some fascinating questions.
I’m sure your book deals with things comprehensively, but what you do highlight here is the fact that, in the (inter)national debate, the surface has barely been scratched.
Any campaign against Scottish independence will necessarily include many arguments along the lines of “not having one’s cake and eating it”: welfare and healthcare; the EU budget. What would Scots make of the true cost of these?
Scots enjoy many of the same benefits that the UK offers to Crown Dependencies and British Overseas Territories, which they would be unwilling or unable to provide for themselves.
Most notably, perhaps: rock-solid military defence, backed up by NATO’s second largest budget, and which still buys a permanent seat at the UNSC. In Scotland, this goes beyond the basic security provided to the Falklands and Isle of Mann etc. The MoD is an important employer, and one whose activities have massive sensitivity among voters: witness Gordon Brown’s ridiculous aircraft-carrier contracts. The building of ships, and the Scottish infantry regiments are potent sources of the very national pride into which Salmond must tap. None of this comes cheaply.
All Britons are represented at the top table of international diplomacy. It’s unlikely that voters could be convinced the EU would look after Scotland similarly.
And let’s not forget the pound. Issuing one’s own banknotes is one thing. Who is to be in charge of monetary policy? A glance accross the Irish Sea and voters will avoid Frankfurt like the plague. A resurrected, Edinburgh-based Scottish Dollar would go down like a lead balloon with business leaders.
Salmond is a genial and bright man who has, for many years, given a very good account of himself in the media.
His electoral achievement deserves (and is likely) to be recognised by any Westminster Govt with regards a referendum.
But he will have to tread carefully to avoid his massive bluff being called. A brave call for true independence will result in humiliation.
There are many good reasons for which people from all over the world seek a British passport. The SNP surely knows this.
Tomás S. Ó Ceallaigh
RT @leftfootfwd: The five steps to Scottish independence http://bit.ly/jCpbIP – #Scotland #Alba #politics
cynicalHighlander
Unionists running scared trying to confuse the issue with misinformation as they have done for over 300 years, the empire is over move on.