The media will focus today on the Lib Dems' meltdown and SNP victory in Scotland. But Labour is also taking seats of the Tories in key marginals.
For obvious reasons the media will focus today on the Liberal Democrats’ meltdown and the SNP victory in Scotland. But of greater long-term interest is what the local election results tell us about the next general election, which will be a fight between Labour and the Conservatives.
The results are still trickling in, but with just 109 of 279 councils declared there are already some bright spots:
– A number of Labour MP’s have mentioned Gravesham where the party has taken eight seats off the Tories to take control for the first time since 2003. The Tories had a majority of 9,312 at the last general election.
– Labour has gained North Warwickshire taking three seats off the Tories. Mike O’Brien lost the Parliamentry seat by 54 votes last May.
– In Lincoln, Labour has taken overall control. Gillian Merron lost the seat by a shade over 1,000 votes last year.
– Labour gained Telford and Wrekin taking 10 seats off the Tories and 6 off the Lib Dems. Telford is a marginal constituency which Labour held by just 981 votes in 2010.
– In Thanet in Kent, Labour won six seats removing the Tories’ control for the first time since 1999. Laura Sandys defeated Labour’s Stephen Ladyman in South Thanet at the last election.
– And in Lancashire, Labour has picked up four seats to win Hyndburn. Labour’s majority fell to just 3,000 in the last election.
With regard to the expectations game, although not a view held by all Labour commentators, Luke Akehurst, who sits on Labour’s National Executive Committee, has concluded that “anything above 400 gains is impressive by recent historical standards”.
By 10.30am, Labour had picked up 339 new councillors and, according to Labour List editor Mark Ferguson, was on course to win 500 to 600. Not a bad night’s work in England.
We’ll keep this post updated during the day.
UPDATE 15.15:
– In Ipswich, Labour has picked up five seats (including two from the Tories) to take overall control of the council. Last May, Ben Gummer beat Labour’s Chris Mole to give the Conservatives the parliamentary seat for the first time since 1992.
UPDATE 18.17:
– There has been an astonishing result in Gedling where Labour has won 23 seats (including 13 from the Tories) to take the council from the Tories. Vernon Coaker held on last time around but with a majority of just 1,859.
40 Responses to “Vote 2011: Early signs that Labour is winning in key marginals”
Anon E Mouse
And just to reinforce my point Labour have just lost Kirkcaldy to the SNP – the swing to the SNP is massive and to lose in Gordon Brown’s own heartland is a huge blow.
But of course Labour activists will continue to read spin like this article and just not get it…
Will Straw
Massive Labour gain from the Tories in Gedling (up 23!). Another sign of Labour progress in England: http://bit.ly/mmYG8y
Will Straw
Thanks for the comments. I just want to be absolutely clear that the results in Scotland are a disaster for Labour. It is also the case that Cameron’s vote holding up presents a serious challenge to Labour and makes the case as Sunny Hundal has blogged today to focus much more on the Tories than on the Lib Dems in future.
But with some results still to come in, Labour has 750 gains in England and has taken control of 25 councils. It’s worth reiterating that this is the second greatest haul in 30 years and takes Labour back to the position in local government that it was in during the late Blair years. It also hit the challenge set last night by sceptics of Ed Miliband including Dan Hodges.
That said, there is still much work to be done and Labour will need to continue to pick up councillors and councils in years to come. But it is not fanciful to claim that Ed Miliband has taken the first steps today to becoming leader of the largest party in a hung parliament at the next election. Now let’s be clear, that’s not good enough and he will need to raise his game if he wants to win the prize that eluded Cameron. But in England and Wales, at least, today was a step forward for Labour.
Anon E Mouse
Will Straw – “The prize that eluded Cameron”?
When I last looked Cameron was Prime Minister. Speak to your dad or anyone else in the PLP because they know…
Ed Miliband is a liability – he’s the elephant in the room and you know it and whilst I admire loyalty I have to criticise stupidity and to continue to support that loser is just that.
To lose in Scotland and AV and for the Tories to gain 50 council seats and 4 councils in the face of these cuts and get more people to vote for them than for Labour is nothing more than an unmitigated disaster.
Delusional responses from Labour supporters does the party no favours Will Straw and you reallly need to get a grip or Labour are doomed to opposition…
Mr. Sensible
Will, my own area of Broxtowe is a case in point; the Tories took it by a narrow margin last May, but now Labour are only 1 seat behind the Conservatives on the Borough Council.