The media will focus today on the Lib Dems' meltdown and SNP victory in Scotland. But Labour is also taking seats of the Tories in key marginals.
For obvious reasons the media will focus today on the Liberal Democrats’ meltdown and the SNP victory in Scotland. But of greater long-term interest is what the local election results tell us about the next general election, which will be a fight between Labour and the Conservatives.
The results are still trickling in, but with just 109 of 279 councils declared there are already some bright spots:
– A number of Labour MP’s have mentioned Gravesham where the party has taken eight seats off the Tories to take control for the first time since 2003. The Tories had a majority of 9,312 at the last general election.
– Labour has gained North Warwickshire taking three seats off the Tories. Mike O’Brien lost the Parliamentry seat by 54 votes last May.
– In Lincoln, Labour has taken overall control. Gillian Merron lost the seat by a shade over 1,000 votes last year.
– Labour gained Telford and Wrekin taking 10 seats off the Tories and 6 off the Lib Dems. Telford is a marginal constituency which Labour held by just 981 votes in 2010.
– In Thanet in Kent, Labour won six seats removing the Tories’ control for the first time since 1999. Laura Sandys defeated Labour’s Stephen Ladyman in South Thanet at the last election.
– And in Lancashire, Labour has picked up four seats to win Hyndburn. Labour’s majority fell to just 3,000 in the last election.
With regard to the expectations game, although not a view held by all Labour commentators, Luke Akehurst, who sits on Labour’s National Executive Committee, has concluded that “anything above 400 gains is impressive by recent historical standards”.
By 10.30am, Labour had picked up 339 new councillors and, according to Labour List editor Mark Ferguson, was on course to win 500 to 600. Not a bad night’s work in England.
We’ll keep this post updated during the day.
UPDATE 15.15:
– In Ipswich, Labour has picked up five seats (including two from the Tories) to take overall control of the council. Last May, Ben Gummer beat Labour’s Chris Mole to give the Conservatives the parliamentary seat for the first time since 1992.
UPDATE 18.17:
– There has been an astonishing result in Gedling where Labour has won 23 seats (including 13 from the Tories) to take the council from the Tories. Vernon Coaker held on last time around but with a majority of just 1,859.
40 Responses to “Vote 2011: Early signs that Labour is winning in key marginals”
scandalousbill
Toby Young,
You say:
“In short, Cameron’s authority has been boosted, while Miliband’s has been diminished. Spin it as you will, but this is a good day for the Tories.”
Do you seriously expect that the battering suffered by the Libdems will not impact their future compliance with coalition policies?
For example, with the issue of NHS reforms, given the Libdem convention rebellion against support for Tory initiated reforms, the controversy already created within the impacted professional, medical and care communities, that Libdem coalition members will now humbly acquiesce to Tory post pause NHS dictates? Talk about spin, the notion that Cameron has gained or rosy days lay ahead for the stuttering coalition, is what is more spin than substance.
As for the Cameron emerging as a winner from the mudslinging of the referendum campaign, I would say the greater the Tory involvement in the No to AV campaign is exposed, the lower Cameron’s credibility will drop. I do not think that Benny Hill quips will extract him from the mire the Tories, and he, as the leader of the Tory No to AV campaign, have mired themselves and him.
Anon E Mouse
Ed’s Talking Balls – I don’t have a lot to say in favour of Gordon Brown – I really don’t like lying bullies but he did realise that The Daily Mail and those sorts of papers were widely read and the electorate could be courted through them.
Early on he had support from his personal friend Paul Dacre the head of the Mail Group but in the end even the Mail couldn’t support him when he pulled stunts like allegedly assaulting members of his staff: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1247357/Angry-Gordon-Brown-hit-aide-yanked-secretary-chair.html
Despite realising the popularity of the Mail and the Murdoch press, Brown’s unpleasant nature meant he just couldn’t connect with the public.
Tony Blair was a winner in every sense for Labour and could connect with the electorate all over the country and not just in their heartlands.
Milliband is frankly useless. I liked his initial speech but since then he has been weak and ineffectual.
My problem is I don’t like the only opposition in the country to be the media but as long as Labour stick with Ed Miliband they have no chance of governing the country again.
To lose so badly in Scotland and to arrogantly continue to espouse the very polices so comprehensively rejected by the electorate last year is staggering. Will Straw’s piece here is like a boxer who gets a couple of good shots in before being hammered and losing the fight and instead of accepting the loss his trainer concentrates on the two good punches. It’s madness…
Anon E Mouse
scandalousbill – Labour have lost Scotland in a system gerrymandered to improve their chances and have no overall control in Wales. Despite these cuts they are only 2% ahead of the Tories and that is a disaster.
The coalition is now stronger because of the Lib Dem losses. There is no way they could effectively leave now and cause a General Election. Even without the forthcoming boundary changes which the Lib Dems would be destroyed – they have no choice but to continue with the government and hope for the best with an upturn in the economy.
If an election were called tomorrow the poor Labour polls and dire financial circumstances would destroy the party and the Tories would win an outright majority…
Noxi
RT @wdjstraw: As I mentioned on BBC News this morning, Labour is picking up councils in Tory marginals: http://bit.ly/mmYG8y
scandalousbill
Anon,
You say.
“The coalition is now stronger because of the Lib Dem losses. There is no way they could effectively leave now and cause a General Election.”
As I understand it, Libdems leaving the coalition or defeating the Tories on any motion does not automatically trigger an election. There are a number of possible outcomes hat could happen. Although, that being said, I would not think that the Tories would be too eager to call an election in the near future, given their standing in the polls. Local council results do not translate automatically into a national mandate.