Ed Balls has announced the support of two new MPs. Left Foot Forward's model now projects that he will come third.
Ed Balls has today announced the support of two new MPs – Michael Connarty who had nominated Andy Burnham and Ian Davidson who had initially supported Diane Abbott. The shift puts him third in Left Foot Forward’s projection of the leadership race outcome for the first time – but well within the margin of error.
MPs and MEPs make up one third of the electoral college. Each MP carries roughly the same weight as 1,000 Labour party members or 4,000 members of affiliated trade unions. Each MP’s vote carries a weight of 0.12 per cent in the electoral college.
With no new information on the trade union or membership sections of the electoral college since YouGov conducted a poll for The Sun and Left Foot Forward’s analysis of CLP votes was calculated, the news today and Jack Straw’s nomination of David Miliband last week alters the calculus to put Ed Balls in third place.
Left Foot Forward’s model now places David Miliband in the lead on first preferences with 36.31 per cent, Ed Miliband on 30.98, and Ed Balls on 11.01%. Diane Abbott and Andy Burnham are tied for last place and just fractionally behind on 10.99%. The gap for third place is well within the margin of error.
As I outlined two weeks ago in a blog for Channel 4 News, Ed Balls is likely to be the kingmaker with his second preferences determining the outcome.
24 Responses to “Ed Balls set for 3rd place”
Jonathan Tench
Is this good for DM or EM's 2nd preference vote? RT @leftfootfwd: Ed Balls set for 3rd place http://bit.ly/bvQsd8
Will Straw
Tomdaylight – Balls isn’t kingmaker because he’s marginally in 3rd place, he’s kingmaker because who his MP followers give their second preferences to will be decisive. Abbott and Burnham’s supporters are much clearer about where their 2nd preferences will go. See this for more details: http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/labour+leadership+will+be+decided+by+balls+voters/3737907
Guido – Good to know. Burnham and Abbott will certainly do better among union and party members but he is picking up respect in the PLP which should keep him off the bottom. If he comes 4th, I suspect that either Abbott or Burnham’s supporters will both give him enough of a boost to raise him to 3rd place.
Anon – I agree. Balls has carried out by far the best ‘air war’ media-focused campaign in this leadership election and is probably the most energetic campaigner too. But his poor CLP numbers show that he doesnt have much of a ‘ground war’ strategy.
Lynda
RT @leftfootfwd: Ed Balls set for 3rd place http://bit.ly/bvQsd8
Ed Miliband projected to win Labour crown | Left Foot Forward
[…] Abbott will come bottom with Ed Balls likely to overtake Andy Burnham and finish third – a projection first made by LFF in August. Perversely, Diane Abbott coming bottom is likely to help Ed Miliband. A candidate […]